{"packs":[{"id":"insurance","name":"Insurance (claims-tech foresight)","version":"1.0.0","hash":"64bf86c9eab1cf635306b9608fac07d0459e93ba1053557558596d91e1422627","description":"Forecasts insured-market losses for a (driver, claim cause, geography) scope, net of the technology that mitigates them. Carries the VIG claims-tech methodology vocabulary so the kernel can stay industry-neutral.\n","channels":{"H":{"label":"Hazard","long_label":"Hazard mitigation","description":"Stops or weakens the event before it reaches the insured asset."},"V":{"label":"Vulnerability","long_label":"Vulnerability mitigation","description":"Reduces the damage an event does once it reaches the asset."},"R":{"label":"Recovery","long_label":"Recovery mitigation","description":"Lowers the cost of settling and rebuilding after the event."}},"outcome_lines":[{"id":"I1","label":"Premium revenue","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I2","label":"Investment income","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I3","label":"Claims","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":true},{"id":"I4","label":"Operational costs","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false}],"evidence_axes":{"industry_reports":{"label":"Industry reports","examples":["Swiss Re sigma","Munich Re NatCat","Lloyd's Futureset"]},"academic_studies":{"label":"Academic studies","examples":["Peer-reviewed journals","university technology-transfer case studies"]},"ngo_reports":{"label":"NGO reports","examples":["WWF","Climate-KIC","Red Cross"]},"regulator_filings":{"label":"Regulator filings","examples":["EIOPA","national supervisors","EU directives"]}},"thresholds":{"emerging_investment_floor":50000000,"confirmed_min_axes":3,"confirmed_min_sources":3,"shallow_catalog_min_deep_share":0.3,"discovery_min_axes_hit":4},"vocabulary":{"outcome_label":"Claim cause","outcome_example":"Flood damage to property","actor_label":"Insurer","actor_example":"VIG","market_label":"Insured market","baseline_label":"Annual insured loss","actionability_label":"Insurer actionability","actionability_modes":["licensing","partnership","acquisition","investment","customer-recommendation","observation-only"],"initiative_types":["company","programme","product","partnership","regulator-funded-pilot","internal-insurer-initiative","academic-spinout"]},"units":{"currencies":["EUR","USD","GBP","CHF"],"default_currency":"EUR","baseline_unit":"{currency} per year, insured loss"},"discovery_axes":[{"id":"trade_press","label":"Insurance trade press","queries":["\"{outcome}\" insurtech site:insuranceinsider.com","\"{outcome}\" startup site:coverager.com","\"{outcome}\" site:reinsurancene.ws","\"{outcome}\" site:artemis.bm"]},{"id":"incumbent_venture_arms","label":"Reinsurer and insurer venture arms","queries":["Munich Re Ventures portfolio \"{outcome}\"","Swiss Re iptiQ \"{outcome}\"","AXA Venture Partners \"{outcome}\"","Allianz X \"{outcome}\"","Anthemis \"{outcome}\"","Climate-KIC \"{outcome}\" insurance"]},{"id":"peer_incumbent_initiatives","label":"Peer-insurer internal initiatives","queries":["{peer} \"{outcome}\" pilot OR initiative OR programme"],"peers":["Allianz","Generali","AXA","Zurich","Munich Re","Swiss Re","Aon","Marsh"]}],"geography":{"home_markets":["AT","CZ","SK","HU","PL","RO","BG","HR","SI"],"home_markets_label":"CEE home markets"},"fit_check":{"questions":[{"id":"measurable","text":"Is the outcome measurable with a published series?","hint":"A baseline needs an insured-loss series from a T1 or T2 publisher."},{"id":"channels","text":"Does the three-channel model apply?","hint":"Each mitigation must fit Hazard, Vulnerability or Recovery."},{"id":"one_market","text":"Is the geography one market with one set of sources and one currency?"},{"id":"publisher","text":"Is there at least one T1 or T2 publisher in the pack covering this outcome?"}]},"publisher_count":25,"t1_publisher_count":13},{"id":"logistics","name":"Logistics (trade-lane disruption foresight)","version":"0.1.0","hash":"80bf241fe9bcbe7825b2f10a85749bfb2c47643ee82e979af5e6ac56e950fe98","description":"Forecasts the cost a driver imposes on a trade lane (rerouting, delay, security, insurance) net of the technology and programmes that mitigate it. Drafted from the design document's logistics example; publisher tiers are unreviewed.\n","channels":{"H":{"label":"Exposure","long_label":"Exposure reduction","description":"Keeps the ship, cargo or crew out of the hazard in the first place."},"V":{"label":"Resilience","long_label":"Resilience of the voyage","description":"Reduces the loss when the hazard is met: hardening, convoying, insurance structure."},"R":{"label":"Recovery","long_label":"Recovery of schedule","description":"Recovers schedule and cost after the disruption: rebooking, port turnaround, claims."}},"outcome_lines":[{"id":"I1","label":"Freight revenue","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I2","label":"Fuel cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I3","label":"Delay and rerouting cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":true},{"id":"I4","label":"Insurance and security cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false}],"evidence_axes":{"industry_reports":{"label":"Industry reports","examples":["Drewry","Clarksons","Sea-Intelligence"]},"academic_studies":{"label":"Academic studies","examples":["Maritime Policy and Management","Transportation Research Part E"]},"ngo_reports":{"label":"NGO and multilateral reports","examples":["UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport","IMO circulars"]},"regulator_filings":{"label":"Regulator and authority filings","examples":["Port authority notices","flag-state circulars","EU customs"]}},"thresholds":{"emerging_investment_floor":25000000,"confirmed_min_axes":3,"confirmed_min_sources":3,"shallow_catalog_min_deep_share":0.25,"discovery_min_axes_hit":4},"vocabulary":{"outcome_label":"Disruption cost line","outcome_example":"Rerouting and delay cost, Asia to Europe lanes","actor_label":"Carrier","actor_example":"A named container carrier","market_label":"Lane market","baseline_label":"Annual disruption cost","actionability_label":"Carrier actionability","actionability_modes":["adopt","partner","procure","invest","recommend-to-shippers","observation-only"],"initiative_types":["company","programme","product","partnership","port-authority-pilot","carrier-internal-initiative","academic-spinout"]},"units":{"currencies":["USD","EUR"],"default_currency":"USD","baseline_unit":"{currency} per year, disruption cost on the lane"},"discovery_axes":[{"id":"trade_press","label":"Shipping trade press","queries":["\"{outcome}\" site:lloydslist.com","\"{outcome}\" site:splash247.com","\"{outcome}\" site:theloadstar.com"]},{"id":"incumbent_venture_arms","label":"Carrier and port venture arms","queries":["Maersk Growth portfolio \"{outcome}\"","CMA CGM Ventures \"{outcome}\"","PSA unboXed \"{outcome}\""]}],"geography":{"home_markets":["NL","DE","BE","SG"],"home_markets_label":"Hub ports"},"fit_check":{"questions":[{"id":"measurable","text":"Is the disruption cost line measurable with a published series?"},{"id":"channels","text":"Does the exposure, resilience, recovery model apply?"},{"id":"one_market","text":"Is the lane one market with one set of sources and one currency?"},{"id":"publisher","text":"Is there at least one tiered publisher covering this lane?"}]},"publisher_count":5,"t1_publisher_count":2}],"broken":{}}