{"id":"insurance","name":"Insurance (claims-tech foresight)","version":"1.0.0","hash":"64bf86c9eab1cf635306b9608fac07d0459e93ba1053557558596d91e1422627","description":"Forecasts insured-market losses for a (driver, claim cause, geography) scope, net of the technology that mitigates them. Carries the VIG claims-tech methodology vocabulary so the kernel can stay industry-neutral.\n","channels":{"H":{"label":"Hazard","long_label":"Hazard mitigation","description":"Stops or weakens the event before it reaches the insured asset."},"V":{"label":"Vulnerability","long_label":"Vulnerability mitigation","description":"Reduces the damage an event does once it reaches the asset."},"R":{"label":"Recovery","long_label":"Recovery mitigation","description":"Lowers the cost of settling and rebuilding after the event."}},"outcome_lines":[{"id":"I1","label":"Premium revenue","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I2","label":"Investment income","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I3","label":"Claims","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":true},{"id":"I4","label":"Operational costs","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false}],"evidence_axes":{"industry_reports":{"label":"Industry reports","examples":["Swiss Re sigma","Munich Re NatCat","Lloyd's Futureset"]},"academic_studies":{"label":"Academic studies","examples":["Peer-reviewed journals","university technology-transfer case studies"]},"ngo_reports":{"label":"NGO reports","examples":["WWF","Climate-KIC","Red Cross"]},"regulator_filings":{"label":"Regulator filings","examples":["EIOPA","national supervisors","EU directives"]}},"thresholds":{"emerging_investment_floor":50000000,"confirmed_min_axes":3,"confirmed_min_sources":3,"shallow_catalog_min_deep_share":0.3,"discovery_min_axes_hit":4},"vocabulary":{"outcome_label":"Claim cause","outcome_example":"Flood damage to property","actor_label":"Insurer","actor_example":"VIG","market_label":"Insured market","baseline_label":"Annual insured loss","actionability_label":"Insurer actionability","actionability_modes":["licensing","partnership","acquisition","investment","customer-recommendation","observation-only"],"initiative_types":["company","programme","product","partnership","regulator-funded-pilot","internal-insurer-initiative","academic-spinout"]},"units":{"currencies":["EUR","USD","GBP","CHF"],"default_currency":"EUR","baseline_unit":"{currency} per year, insured loss"},"discovery_axes":[{"id":"trade_press","label":"Insurance trade press","queries":["\"{outcome}\" insurtech site:insuranceinsider.com","\"{outcome}\" startup site:coverager.com","\"{outcome}\" site:reinsurancene.ws","\"{outcome}\" site:artemis.bm"]},{"id":"incumbent_venture_arms","label":"Reinsurer and insurer venture arms","queries":["Munich Re Ventures portfolio \"{outcome}\"","Swiss Re iptiQ \"{outcome}\"","AXA Venture Partners \"{outcome}\"","Allianz X \"{outcome}\"","Anthemis \"{outcome}\"","Climate-KIC \"{outcome}\" insurance"]},{"id":"peer_incumbent_initiatives","label":"Peer-insurer internal initiatives","queries":["{peer} \"{outcome}\" pilot OR initiative OR programme"],"peers":["Allianz","Generali","AXA","Zurich","Munich Re","Swiss Re","Aon","Marsh"]}],"geography":{"home_markets":["AT","CZ","SK","HU","PL","RO","BG","HR","SI"],"home_markets_label":"CEE home markets"},"fit_check":{"questions":[{"id":"measurable","text":"Is the outcome measurable with a published series?","hint":"A baseline needs an insured-loss series from a T1 or T2 publisher."},{"id":"channels","text":"Does the three-channel model apply?","hint":"Each mitigation must fit Hazard, Vulnerability or Recovery."},{"id":"one_market","text":"Is the geography one market with one set of sources and one currency?"},{"id":"publisher","text":"Is there at least one T1 or T2 publisher in the pack covering this outcome?"}]},"publisher_count":25,"t1_publisher_count":13,"publishers":[{"id":"swiss_re_institute","name":"Swiss Re Institute","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.swissre.com/institute/research.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["sigma","SONAR"]},{"id":"munich_re","name":"Munich Re","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.munichre.com/en/insights.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["Topics Geo","NatCatSERVICE Annual Review"]},{"id":"hannover_re","name":"Hannover Re","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.hannover-re.com/1462450/research-publications","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"scor","name":"SCOR","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.scor.com/en/expert-views","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"lloyds_futureset","name":"Lloyd's Futureset","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/futureset","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"geneva_association","name":"The Geneva Association","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.genevaassociation.org/publications","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"insurance_europe","name":"Insurance Europe","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.insuranceeurope.eu/publications","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"eiopa","name":"EIOPA","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.eiopa.europa.eu/publications_en","axes":["regulator_filings"],"series":[]},{"id":"iais","name":"IAIS","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.iaisweb.org/publications/","axes":["regulator_filings"],"series":[]},{"id":"am_best","name":"AM Best","tier":"T1","url":"https://news.ambest.com/research.aspx","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"mckinsey_insurance","name":"McKinsey & Company - Financial Services / Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["Global Insurance Report","McKinsey Global Institute"]},{"id":"bcg_insurance","name":"BCG - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.bcg.com/industries/insurance/overview","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"bain_insurance","name":"Bain & Company - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.bain.com/industry-expertise/financial-services/insurance/","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"deloitte_insurance","name":"Deloitte - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/Industries/financial-services/research/insurance.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["Global Insurance Outlook"]},{"id":"ey_insurance","name":"EY - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.ey.com/en_gl/insights/insurance","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["Global Insurance Outlook"]},{"id":"pwc_insurance","name":"PwC - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/financial-services/insurance.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"kpmg_insurance","name":"KPMG - Insurance","tier":"T2","url":"https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/financial-services/insurance.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"aon","name":"Aon","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.aon.com/insights/","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"marsh_mclennan","name":"Marsh McLennan","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.marshmclennan.com/insights.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"gallagher_re","name":"Gallagher Re","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.ajg.com/gallagherre/news-and-insights/","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"willis_towers_watson","name":"WTW (Willis Towers Watson)","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.wtwco.com/en-gb/insights","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"guy_carpenter","name":"Guy Carpenter","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.guycarp.com/insights.html","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":[]},{"id":"jrc","name":"European Commission Joint Research Centre","tier":"T1","url":"https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/","axes":["academic_studies","regulator_filings"],"series":["Drought Risk Atlas","PESETA"]},{"id":"eea","name":"European Environment Agency","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis","axes":["academic_studies","regulator_filings"],"series":["Climate-ADAPT"]},{"id":"ipcc","name":"IPCC","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/","axes":["academic_studies"],"series":[]}],"vocabulary_prompt":"# Insurance vocabulary injected into kernel prompts\n\n**Version:** v1.0\n\nThe kernel prompt skeletons name roles (composer, critic, scout, verifier) and rules. This\nfile supplies the words the industry uses, so the skeletons stay industry-neutral.\n\n- The outcome is a **claim cause**: a physical event that produces insured property loss\n  (flood damage to property, wildfire damage to property, hail damage to motor).\n- The actor is an **insurer**. Actionability means what the insurer can do with a venture:\n  license it, partner with it, acquire or invest in it, recommend it to policyholders, or\n  only observe it.\n- Mitigation channels are **Hazard** (stop the water or fire reaching the asset),\n  **Vulnerability** (reduce damage given contact) and **Recovery** (settle and rebuild for\n  less). A venture sits in exactly one channel by its dominant effect.\n- Evidence is tiered: **T1** reinsurers, supervisors and peer-reviewed journals; **T2**\n  consultancies, trade bodies and corporate websites; **T3** trade press and vendor claims,\n  supporting only.\n- Categories are **mechanisms**, not technologies: a flood warning service and a river\n  gauge network that both act by giving policyholders lead time share a category; two AI\n  products that act on different lines of the P&L do not.\n"}