{"id":"logistics","name":"Logistics (trade-lane disruption foresight)","version":"0.1.0","hash":"80bf241fe9bcbe7825b2f10a85749bfb2c47643ee82e979af5e6ac56e950fe98","description":"Forecasts the cost a driver imposes on a trade lane (rerouting, delay, security, insurance) net of the technology and programmes that mitigate it. Drafted from the design document's logistics example; publisher tiers are unreviewed.\n","channels":{"H":{"label":"Exposure","long_label":"Exposure reduction","description":"Keeps the ship, cargo or crew out of the hazard in the first place."},"V":{"label":"Resilience","long_label":"Resilience of the voyage","description":"Reduces the loss when the hazard is met: hardening, convoying, insurance structure."},"R":{"label":"Recovery","long_label":"Recovery of schedule","description":"Recovers schedule and cost after the disruption: rebooking, port turnaround, claims."}},"outcome_lines":[{"id":"I1","label":"Freight revenue","direction":"revenue-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I2","label":"Fuel cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false},{"id":"I3","label":"Delay and rerouting cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":true},{"id":"I4","label":"Insurance and security cost","direction":"cost-like","default_forecast":false}],"evidence_axes":{"industry_reports":{"label":"Industry reports","examples":["Drewry","Clarksons","Sea-Intelligence"]},"academic_studies":{"label":"Academic studies","examples":["Maritime Policy and Management","Transportation Research Part E"]},"ngo_reports":{"label":"NGO and multilateral reports","examples":["UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport","IMO circulars"]},"regulator_filings":{"label":"Regulator and authority filings","examples":["Port authority notices","flag-state circulars","EU customs"]}},"thresholds":{"emerging_investment_floor":25000000,"confirmed_min_axes":3,"confirmed_min_sources":3,"shallow_catalog_min_deep_share":0.25,"discovery_min_axes_hit":4},"vocabulary":{"outcome_label":"Disruption cost line","outcome_example":"Rerouting and delay cost, Asia to Europe lanes","actor_label":"Carrier","actor_example":"A named container carrier","market_label":"Lane market","baseline_label":"Annual disruption cost","actionability_label":"Carrier actionability","actionability_modes":["adopt","partner","procure","invest","recommend-to-shippers","observation-only"],"initiative_types":["company","programme","product","partnership","port-authority-pilot","carrier-internal-initiative","academic-spinout"]},"units":{"currencies":["USD","EUR"],"default_currency":"USD","baseline_unit":"{currency} per year, disruption cost on the lane"},"discovery_axes":[{"id":"trade_press","label":"Shipping trade press","queries":["\"{outcome}\" site:lloydslist.com","\"{outcome}\" site:splash247.com","\"{outcome}\" site:theloadstar.com"]},{"id":"incumbent_venture_arms","label":"Carrier and port venture arms","queries":["Maersk Growth portfolio \"{outcome}\"","CMA CGM Ventures \"{outcome}\"","PSA unboXed \"{outcome}\""]}],"geography":{"home_markets":["NL","DE","BE","SG"],"home_markets_label":"Hub ports"},"fit_check":{"questions":[{"id":"measurable","text":"Is the disruption cost line measurable with a published series?"},{"id":"channels","text":"Does the exposure, resilience, recovery model apply?"},{"id":"one_market","text":"Is the lane one market with one set of sources and one currency?"},{"id":"publisher","text":"Is there at least one tiered publisher covering this lane?"}]},"publisher_count":5,"t1_publisher_count":2,"publishers":[{"id":"unctad","name":"UNCTAD","tier":"T1","url":"https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics","axes":["ngo_reports"],"series":["Review of Maritime Transport"]},{"id":"imo","name":"International Maritime Organization","tier":"T1","url":"https://www.imo.org","axes":["regulator_filings"],"series":[]},{"id":"drewry","name":"Drewry","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.drewry.co.uk","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["World Container Index"]},{"id":"clarksons","name":"Clarksons Research","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.clarksons.net","axes":["industry_reports"],"series":["Shipping Intelligence Weekly"]},{"id":"port_of_rotterdam","name":"Port of Rotterdam Authority","tier":"T2","url":"https://www.portofrotterdam.com","axes":["regulator_filings"],"series":[]}],"vocabulary_prompt":"# Logistics vocabulary injected into kernel prompts\n\n**Version:** v0.1\n\n- The outcome is a **disruption cost line** on a trade lane: delay and rerouting cost, fuel,\n  insurance and security surcharges.\n- The actor is a **carrier**. Actionability means what the carrier can do with a venture:\n  adopt it, partner, procure it, invest, recommend it to shippers, or only observe.\n- Channels are **Exposure** (keep the voyage out of the hazard), **Resilience** (lose less\n  when the hazard is met) and **Recovery** (recover schedule and cost afterwards).\n- Evidence tiers: **T1** multilateral bodies and peer-reviewed journals; **T2** maritime\n  research houses, port authorities and carrier filings; **T3** trade press and vendor claims,\n  supporting only.\n- Categories are **mechanisms**: a convoy service and an escort-insurance bundle that both act\n  by lowering loss given transit share a category; two routing tools that act on different cost\n  lines do not.\n"}