{"run_id":"2026-flooding-europe-categories","schema_version":"v0.7","unit":"EUR","base_year":2025,"horizon_years":10,"unmitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2025,"base":8000000000.0,"low":5000000000.0,"high":11000000000.0},{"t":1,"year":2026,"base":8400000000.0,"low":5165000000.0,"high":11847000000.0},{"t":2,"year":2027,"base":8820000000.0,"low":5335444999.999999,"high":12759219000.0},{"t":3,"year":2028,"base":9261000000.000002,"low":5511514684.999998,"high":13741678862.999998},{"t":4,"year":2029,"base":9724050000.000002,"low":5693394669.604999,"high":14799788135.450998},{"t":5,"year":2030,"base":10210252500.000002,"low":5881276693.701962,"high":15939371821.880724},{"t":6,"year":2031,"base":10720765125.000004,"low":6075358824.594127,"high":17166703452.165539},{"t":7,"year":2032,"base":11256803381.250004,"low":6275845665.805733,"high":18488539617.982285},{"t":8,"year":2033,"base":11819643550.312504,"low":6482948572.777322,"high":19912157168.566917},{"t":9,"year":2034,"base":12410625727.82813,"low":6696885875.678973,"high":21445393270.54657},{"t":10,"year":2035,"base":13031157014.219536,"low":6917883109.576378,"high":23096688552.37866}],"mitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2025,"base":8000000000.0,"low":5000000000.0,"high":11000000000.0},{"t":1,"year":2026,"base":8154881205.234512,"low":4786710676.5567875,"high":12060925047.024242},{"t":2,"year":2027,"base":8311489615.08471,"low":4578633102.736722,"high":13223580692.663841},{"t":3,"year":2028,"base":8469791804.182488,"low":4375774164.870772,"high":14497668347.403673},{"t":4,"year":2029,"base":8519622933.116037,"low":4286629332.229911,"high":15149098796.573992},{"t":5,"year":2030,"base":8567056938.620372,"low":4197707183.5918937,"high":15827081956.686554},{"t":6,"year":2031,"base":8771500879.368414,"low":4219168753.127752,"high":16788880551.657928},{"t":7,"year":2032,"base":8980028097.48302,"low":4240380438.36729,"high":17808440268.61725},{"t":8,"year":2033,"base":9192690308.477947,"low":4261334718.5237994,"high":18889182645.400684},{"t":9,"year":2034,"base":9409538633.606752,"low":4282024028.5674295,"high":20034728629.045967},{"t":10,"year":2035,"base":9630623527.915247,"low":4302440761.338554,"high":21248909970.873047}],"waterfall":[{"id":"cat_h_flood_retention_infrastructure","label":"Managed Flood Retention & Attenuation","channel":"H","delta":-222528397.88462067,"start":13031157014.219536,"end":12808628616.334915},{"id":"cat_h_floodplain_wetland_restoration","label":"Floodplain & Wetland Restoration","channel":"H","delta":-195630179.83148193,"start":12808628616.334915,"end":12612998436.503433},{"id":"cat_h_structural_flood_defence","label":"Hard Flood Defence Infrastructure","channel":"H","delta":-139004443.54057693,"start":12612998436.503433,"end":12473993992.962856},{"id":"cat_v_building_standards_pfr","label":"Building Standards & Property Flood Resilience Codes","channel":"V","delta":-453142062.30743027,"start":12473993992.962856,"end":12020851930.655426},{"id":"cat_v_deployable_property_barriers","label":"Deployable Property Flood Barriers","channel":"V","delta":-217418945.69111443,"start":12020851930.655426,"end":11803432984.964312},{"id":"cat_v_flood_warning_forecasting","label":"AI Flood Warning & Forecasting","channel":"V","delta":-567729356.316885,"start":11803432984.964312,"end":11235703628.647427},{"id":"cat_v_satellite_parametric_observation","label":"Satellite Flood Observation & Parametric Triggers","channel":"V","delta":-103992609.11201096,"start":11235703628.647427,"end":11131711019.535416},{"id":"cat_r_ai_actuarial_pricing","label":"AI Actuarial Pricing & Loss Reserving","channel":"R","delta":-125570790.10305023,"start":11131711019.535416,"end":11006140229.432365},{"id":"cat_r_ai_claims_triage","label":"AI-Driven Claims Triage & Processing Automation","channel":"R","delta":-937651922.0650959,"start":11006140229.432365,"end":10068488307.36727},{"id":"cat_r_modular_rapid_reconstruction","label":"Modular & Prefabricated Rapid Reconstruction","channel":"R","delta":-115022313.56246948,"start":10068488307.36727,"end":9953465993.8048},{"id":"cat_r_post_event_remote_assessment","label":"Post-Event Aerial & Satellite Damage Assessment","channel":"R","delta":-322842465.88955116,"start":9953465993.8048,"end":9630623527.915249}],"channel_decomposition":{},"actor_view":{},"params":{"L_0":{"value":8000000000,"lower":5000000000,"upper":11000000000,"unit":"EUR per year (2025 prices), insured property flood losses","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2025","page_or_span":"p. 8 — 'water-related insured losses [in Europe] were USD 11 billion (excluding tropical cyclone-related flood losses)'; Table 3 p. 29 — Europe 2024 NatCat insured USD 14.7 bn","note":"Sets the 2024-observed upper anchor of the bracket. Above-trend year driven by Valencia DANA, Storm Boris, Germany May/Jun."},{"wiki_source_id":"munichre_natcat_stats_2024_factsheet","page_or_span":"p. 2-3 — Europe 2024 insured US$14 bn; three named flood events sum US$8.5 bn (Valencia US$4.2 bn, Germany US$2.2 bn, Storm Boris US$2.1 bn)","note":"Independent corroboration of the 2024 upper anchor within ~6% of Swiss Re's figure."},{"wiki_source_id":"jrc_peseta_iv_river_floods_news_2023","page_or_span":"section 'Smoothly adapting or reacting to increased damage' — '€7.6 billion currently river flood economic damage in EU+UK'","note":"Modelled multi-year-mean baseline; converted to insured ~€4-5 bn river-only at ~55% blended penetration. Anchors the lower band when combined with coastal (€0.7 bn insured per IPCC) and a pluvial residual."},{"wiki_source_id":"ipcc_ar6_wg2_ch13_europe","page_or_span":"section 13.2.1.1 (Risk of Coastal Flooding and Erosion) — 'Expected annual (direct) damages due to coastal flooding are projected to rise from 1.3 billion EUR today'","note":"Coastal-flood component of the typical-year baseline; supplements PESETA IV river-only damage."}]},"g":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.033,"upper":0.077,"unit":"fraction per year, real (Europe-flood-specific, combined climate signal + exposure growth)","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2026","page_or_span":"p. 23 (Figure 17 — Insured loss growth from floods in Europe, decomposition) — 'Total: 5.0% per year [3.3%, 7.7%]'; 'Europe's insured flood losses have grown at a moderate 5% annually'; WCE ~5% vs SEU ~6%","note":"Primary anchor for Phase II g_climate after sigma 1/2026 ingestion. Europe-flood-specific, peer-reviewable decomposition with explicit ranges. Climate-only residual is -0.4% [-2.0, +0.8] — adaptation offsetting climate signal historically."},{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2025","page_or_span":"p. 4 (Executive summary) and p. 5 — 'long-term trend rate of 5–7% annually in real terms' (global all-peril)","note":"Preceding annual edition; consistent with sigma 1/2026's continued 5-7% framing. Retained as supporting source for forward-looking trend."},{"wiki_source_id":"munichre_natcat_stats_2024_factsheet","page_or_span":"p. 1 — 10-year average (2014-2023) US$94 bn; 2024 US$140 bn (inflation-adjusted)","note":"Implied global all-peril empirical 10y real CAGR ≈ 4.1%; cross-check on Swiss Re's trend framing."},{"wiki_source_id":"jrc_peseta_iv_river_floods_news_2023","page_or_span":"section 'Smoothly adapting...' — €7.6 bn → €44 bn river flood economic damage at 3°C GWL by 2100, no-adaptation","note":"Pure climate-signal component (no-adaptation counterfactual), ≈2.4%/year economic-damage CAGR. Complements sigma 1/2026's historical-with-adaptation finding."},{"wiki_source_id":"ipcc_ar6_wg2_ch13_europe","page_or_span":"section 13.2.1.2.1 (Riverine and pluvial flooding) — '3× damages at 1.5°C GWL, 4× at 2°C, 6× at 3°C' (Alfieri/Dottori); section 13.1.4 (European Climate: Main Conclusions of WGI AR6) — precipitation extremes high-confidence increases in NEU and EEU","note":"Assessment-grade attribution lineage. Compatible with sigma 1/2026's empirical decomposition under the assumption that adaptation continues to offset climate signal."}]},"categories":[{"id":"cat_h_structural_flood_defence","name":"Hard Flood Defence Infrastructure","channel":"H","mitigation":0.895,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.45,"lower":0.38,"upper":0.52,"source":"dutch_delta_programme_homepage: Delta Programme 2024 documents ~100 dike upgrade projects covering 814 km of dike and 317 other engineering structures planned for 2024-2035; Rijkswaterstaat manages 530 km of national flood defences and 211 km of primary flood defences, including six Dutch storm surge barriers."},"y3":{"value":0.48,"lower":0.41,"upper":0.62,"source":"eu_floods_directive_implementation: EC implementation reports document Member State progress against EU Floods Directive."},"y5":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.43,"upper":0.7,"source":"dottori_2023_nature_climate_change: Strengthening existing dyke systems: in a 3 degree scenario, an investment of 3.1 billion EUR/year would help decrease the annual flood damages by 70% in 2100."},"y10":{"value":0.55,"lower":0.45,"upper":0.78,"source":"analyst_judgment_t01_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T01 levees in continental Europe at y10 (2036) = 0.55 with 90% interval [0.45, 0.78]; saturation_cap = 0.90; share-of-addressable framing."}}},{"id":"cat_h_flood_retention_infrastructure","name":"Managed Flood Retention & Attenuation","channel":"H","mitigation":0.94,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.27,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.35,"source":"room_for_the_river_homepage: Room for the River (NL) is a 2.3 bn EUR 30-measure programme completed 2017 across the Rhine and Meuse Dutch reaches."},"y3":{"value":0.32,"lower":0.24,"upper":0.45,"source":"life_wildisland_homepage: LIFE WILDisland is a 15-partner multi-country EU LIFE project covering AT, SK, HU, HR, RS, BG, RO, UA, with 2025-2027 deliverable cycle restoring active Danube floodplain islands."},"y5":{"value":0.4,"lower":0.3,"upper":0.58,"source":"jrc_peseta_iv_river_floods_news_2023: Reducing flood peaks using detention areas would lower the projected flood losses in Europe from 44 billion EUR per year to 8.1 billion EUR per year at the end of the century, with a benefit-to-cost ratio of 4.2."},"y10":{"value":0.55,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.78,"source":"analyst_judgment_t02_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T02 detention/retention at y10 (2036) = 0.55 with 90% interval [0.35, 0.78]; saturation_cap = 0.90."}}},{"id":"cat_h_floodplain_wetland_restoration","name":"Floodplain & Wetland Restoration","channel":"H","mitigation":0.96,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.12,"lower":0.08,"upper":0.2,"source":"eea_floodplains_report_24_2019: 70-90% of European floodplains degraded; restoration provides alternative to structural flood protection."},"y3":{"value":0.22,"lower":0.13,"upper":0.35,"source":"nature_restoration_regulation_homepage: EU Regulation 2024/1991 adopted June 2024; binding restoration targets including floodplain reconnection."},"y5":{"value":0.32,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.5,"source":"nature_restoration_regulation_eea: EEA monitoring of EU Nature Restoration Regulation 2024/1991 implementation; binding 2030 milestone of 20% of areas in need restored."},"y10":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.3,"upper":0.78,"source":"analyst_judgment_t03_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T03 wetland restoration at y10 (2036) = 0.50 with 90% interval [0.30, 0.78]; saturation_cap = 0.85."}}},{"id":"cat_v_flood_warning_forecasting","name":"AI Flood Warning & Forecasting","channel":"V","mitigation":0.91,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.22,"upper":0.42,"source":"efas_copernicus_homepage: European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) provides operational early-warning service for civil-protection use across Europe under the Copernicus Emergency Management Service."},"y3":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.65,"source":"vortex_io_eic_coverage: vorteX-io is EIC Accelerator-funded with commercial target of 3,000 hydrometric stations deployed by end-2026."},"y5":{"value":0.65,"lower":0.45,"upper":0.8,"source":"nearing_2024_nature_global_flood: An operational early-warning system based on this model produces short-term (7-day) flood forecasts in real time, free and open to the public, in over 80 countries."},"y10":{"value":0.82,"lower":0.6,"upper":0.93,"source":"analyst_judgment_t04_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T04 AI early warning systems at y10 (2036) = 0.82 with 90% interval [0.60, 0.93]; saturation_cap = 0.95."}}},{"id":"cat_v_satellite_parametric_observation","name":"Satellite Flood Observation & Parametric Triggers","channel":"V","mitigation":0.979,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.08,"lower":0.04,"upper":0.15,"source":"swiss_re_iceye_press_release: Swiss Re x ICEYE strategic partnership March 2021; SAR satellite data integrated into Swiss Re geo-risk platform for near-real-time flood risk management; confirms reinsurer-tier adoption; primary-insurer rollout early-stage as of 2026."},"y3":{"value":0.18,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.28,"source":"floodbase_funding_coverage: Floodbase Series B — parametric flood products enabled by satellite and hydrological data fusion; sovereign and insurer clients in 40+ countries; growing primary-insurer adoption driven by parametric product expansion."},"y5":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.18,"upper":0.45,"source":"iceye_independent_validation: Independent ICEYE validation — SAR-derived flood extent maps achieve >90% pixel-level accuracy against post-event ground survey; water depth estimates within 30 cm for riverine events — operational accuracy threshold met for primary insurer parametric trigger adoption."},"y10":{"value":0.52,"lower":0.32,"upper":0.72,"source":"analyst_judgment_cat_v_satellite_y10_2026_06_12: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for cat_v_satellite_parametric_observation at y10 (2036) = 0.52 with 90% interval [0.32, 0.72]; saturation_cap = 0.80."}}},{"id":"cat_v_deployable_property_barriers","name":"Deployable Property Flood Barriers","channel":"V","mitigation":0.94,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.08,"lower":0.05,"upper":0.13,"source":"megasecur_europe_homepage: MegaSecur Europe Water-Gate temporary barrier system using floodwater to automatically fill, unfold, and stabilise; single-person deployable."},"y3":{"value":0.14,"lower":0.07,"upper":0.22,"source":"pfr_uk_grant_schemes: UK Defra Property Flood Resilience Grant Scheme provides up to 5,000 GBP per property in qualifying flood-recovery events."},"y5":{"value":0.22,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.35,"source":"floodframe_allianz_press: FloodFrame positioned as property-level deployable flood barrier within Allianz France partnership; announcement 2024 documents insurer-vendor commercial pilot template."},"y10":{"value":0.38,"lower":0.18,"upper":0.68,"source":"analyst_judgment_t06_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T06 deployable barriers at y10 (2036) = 0.38 with 90% interval [0.18, 0.68]; saturation_cap = 0.90."}}},{"id":"cat_v_building_standards_pfr","name":"Building Standards & Property Flood Resilience Codes","channel":"V","mitigation":0.94,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.25,"source":"eu_floods_directive_homepage: EU Floods Directive 2007/60/EC mandates assessment / mapping / FRMP under Article 7."},"y3":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.45,"source":"flood_re_homepage: Flood Re Build Back Better scheme provides up to 10,000 GBP of property flood resilience measures funded after a Flood Re-backed claim."},"y5":{"value":0.45,"lower":0.3,"upper":0.62,"source":"ciwem_pfr_cop_homepage: CIWEM Property Flood Resilience Code of Practice — UK industry standard developed with CIRIA covering six PFR-design standards."},"y10":{"value":0.75,"lower":0.45,"upper":0.88,"source":"analyst_judgment_t05_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T05 PFR codes at y10 (2036) = 0.75 with 90% interval [0.45, 0.88]; share-of-addressable framing; saturation_cap = 0.90."}}},{"id":"cat_r_post_event_remote_assessment","name":"Post-Event Aerial & Satellite Damage Assessment","channel":"R","mitigation":0.945,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.42,"source":"swiss_re_droneeye_homepage: Swiss Re DroneEye documented as commercial-scale operational reinsurance drone-assessment service; corroborated by Claims Journal coverage of reinsurer-side drone + AI workflows."},"y3":{"value":0.52,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.65,"source":"allianz_drone_uk_homepage: Allianz Underwater UAS Commercial operations in UK; drone investigations practice for property claims documented as carrier-internal standard."},"y5":{"value":0.7,"lower":0.48,"upper":0.82,"source":"aon_drone_homepage: Aon drone-property-claims practice — technology revolutionising real-time modeling and response; deployment timeline of 1-2 days after a major event."},"y10":{"value":0.88,"lower":0.62,"upper":0.94,"source":"analyst_judgment_t07_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T07 drone damage assessment at y10 (2036) = 0.88 with 90% interval [0.62, 0.94]; saturation_cap = 0.95."}}},{"id":"cat_r_ai_claims_triage","name":"AI-Driven Claims Triage & Processing Automation","channel":"R","mitigation":0.87,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.18,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.3,"source":"beesafe_homepage: Beesafe (VIG digital startup, Poland) integrates Tractable AI for car claims; Beesafe + Compensa Tractable integration documented with 73% cost reduction + days-to-minutes resolution cycle."},"y3":{"value":0.38,"lower":0.22,"upper":0.55,"source":"tractable_homepage: Tractable property appraisals for natural-disaster recovery growing 10x year-on-year in Japan; April 2022 launched German subsidiary."},"y5":{"value":0.58,"lower":0.38,"upper":0.75,"source":"tractable_series_e: Tractable Series E unicorn customer-set includes Allianz, AXA, Direct Line, RSA, Tokio Marine; Series E round June 2022."},"y10":{"value":0.82,"lower":0.55,"upper":0.93,"source":"analyst_judgment_t08_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T08 AI claims triage at y10 (2036) = 0.82 with 90% interval [0.55, 0.93]; saturation_cap = 0.95."}}},{"id":"cat_r_ai_actuarial_pricing","name":"AI Actuarial Pricing & Loss Reserving","channel":"R","mitigation":0.9775,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.12,"lower":0.07,"upper":0.2,"source":"akur8_funding: Akur8 Series C — transparent AI actuarial pricing platform deployed at AXA, Generali, Munich Re; 10x modelling cycle time reduction; confirms early-adopter large-insurer tier-1 penetration as of 2026."},"y3":{"value":0.28,"lower":0.15,"upper":0.42,"source":"akur8_homepage: Akur8 automated gradient boosting and neural network models for pure premium derivation; reserve best-estimate automation validated by qualified actuaries — platform maturity driving mid-market adoption."},"y5":{"value":0.42,"lower":0.25,"upper":0.6,"source":"akur8_funding: Akur8 Series C commercial traction — 2-4% loss ratio improvement documented across insurer deployments; expanding beyond early-adopter tier-1 insurers toward mid-market European P&C."},"y10":{"value":0.62,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.8,"source":"analyst_judgment_cat_r_actuarial_y10_2026_06_12: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for cat_r_ai_actuarial_pricing at y10 (2036) = 0.62 with 90% interval [0.35, 0.80]; saturation_cap = 0.85."}}},{"id":"cat_r_modular_rapid_reconstruction","name":"Modular & Prefabricated Rapid Reconstruction","channel":"R","mitigation":0.97,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.07,"lower":0.03,"upper":0.13,"source":"modulaire_group_homepage: Modulaire Group (former Algeco Scotsman) - European leader in modular building solutions with broad CEE operations."},"y3":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.07,"upper":0.25,"source":"uk_buildoffsite_homepage: UK Buildoffsite is the umbrella organisation for off-site / modular construction industry in the UK."},"y5":{"value":0.25,"lower":0.13,"upper":0.4,"source":"modular_construction_corroboration: Modular construction industry growth + post-flood reconstruction case-study evidence base, including Modular System Klodzko (PL) deployment for September-2024 flood reconstruction."},"y10":{"value":0.45,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.78,"source":"analyst_judgment_t09_y10_2026_05_21: Analyst-judgment central adoption value for T09 modular rapid-repair at y10 (2036) = 0.45 with 90% interval [0.20, 0.78]; share-of-addressable framing; saturation_cap = 0.85."}}}],"policy":"envelope","rebase":"ratio","outcome_line":"I3"},"diagnostics":[],"available":true,"note":"No Phase VI artifact: mitigated path computed live from the matrix and adoption anchors."}