{"id":"2026-flooding-europe-matrix","title":"Flood damage to property, Europe (EU + UK + CH)","kind":"pilot","pack":"insurance","scope":{"industry":"insurance","driver":"Climate Change","outcome":"Flood damage to property","geography":"Europe (EU + UK + CH)","base_year":2025,"horizon_years":10,"unit":"EUR","actor":"VIG"},"frozen_at":"2026-06-07","stage":"ventures","stage_label":"Ventures","status":"not_started","venture_count":0,"category_count":0,"method_hash":"202a4cbc504bec26bf3780a55d1f2f061c902bdb2125c00f0eb282298fcd1f6d","pack_hash":"64bf86c9eab1cf635306b9608fac07d0459e93ba1053557558596d91e1422627","scope_hash":"ee9ad27f27eb9b04b971b6b2f4664a4c3aa2a654a892317110130ac3f4b3f9f5","updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:37+00:00","readonly":true,"readonly_reason":"Frozen pilot (frozen 2026-06-07). The engine reads it and never rewrites it.","stages":[{"key":"scoped","label":"Scope","status":"frozen","artifacts":["scope"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"5de178ddccb52e152106e77e14265d29e91dc8328777165ed5c0b6ece241c9db","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"5de178ddccb52e152106e77e14265d29e91dc8328777165ed5c0b6ece241c9db","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"frozen","artifacts":["sources"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":"145 source pages in the wiki"},{"key":"ventures","label":"Ventures","status":"not_started","artifacts":[],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"parameters","label":"Parameters","status":"frozen","artifacts":["baseline","adoption"],"gates":[{"code":"BASE_YEAR_MISMATCH","severity":"warning","message":"BASE_YEAR_MISMATCH: phase_02_baseline.yaml base_year is 2025 but phase_10_matrix.yaml base_year is 2026; every mitigated year pairs one year's loss with another year's adoption. Declare base_year in phase_05_adoption.yaml so this is checked at sign-off (adoption.md, Base Year).","ref":"phase_05_adoption.yaml"},{"code":"VALIDATOR","severity":"warning","message":"base_year 2026 is not a completed calendar year (last completed: 2025): y0 is then a mid-year estimate rather than an observation, and L_0 cannot yet be observed for that year (adoption.md, Base Year).","ref":"phase_05_adoption.yaml"}],"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"6651f73d6439541a08e5b06db8832027f91488df9e865a88dda43826ea6115e8","at":"2026-05-21","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"6651f73d6439541a08e5b06db8832027f91488df9e865a88dda43826ea6115e8","at":"2026-05-21","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"matrix","label":"Impact matrix","status":"frozen","artifacts":["matrix"],"gates":[{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:baseline.I3.sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_03_trajectory.yaml#L_market.unmitigated.y10 (dot-path segment 'L_market' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[0].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T04_ai_early_warning (dot-path segment 'T04_ai_early_warning' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[1].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T01_levees_dikes (dot-path segment 'T01_levees_dikes' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[2].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T06_deployable_barriers (dot-path segment 'T06_deployable_barriers' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[3].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T02_retention_reservoirs (dot-path segment 'T02_retention_reservoirs' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[4].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T03_wetland_restoration (dot-path segment 'T03_wetland_restoration' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[5].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T05_pfr_building_codes (dot-path segment 'T05_pfr_building_codes' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[6].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T07_drones_postevent (dot-path segment 'T07_drones_postevent' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[7].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T08_ai_claims_triage (dot-path segment 'T08_ai_claims_triage' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"YAML_REF_DANGLING","severity":"warning","message":"YAML_REF_DANGLING: phase_10_matrix.yaml:tech_classes[8].sources[0]: yaml-ref:phase_05_adoption.yaml#T09_modular_repair (dot-path segment 'T09_modular_repair' (index 0) not found at '<root>')","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"TIER_CONFIDENCE_VIOLATION","severity":"warning","message":"TIER_CONFIDENCE_VIOLATION: baseline.I3: confidence H requires >=1 T1 source; resolved source tiers: none","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"EVIDENCE_GAP_INCONSISTENT","severity":"warning","message":"EVIDENCE_GAP_INCONSISTENT: ventures.I003.mitigation.I4: evidence_gap is true but gap_reason is empty","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"},{"code":"BASE_YEAR_MISMATCH","severity":"warning","message":"BASE_YEAR_MISMATCH: phase_10_matrix.yaml:base_year: 2026 differs from phase_02_baseline.yaml base_year 2025 (t=0 is one completed calendar year for both L_0 and y0)","ref":"phase_10_matrix.yaml"}],"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"7138672e732b0925419b3f114d09074923f46243062dbfdde045bc858fe4f8a9","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"7138672e732b0925419b3f114d09074923f46243062dbfdde045bc858fe4f8a9","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"computed","label":"Computed","status":"frozen","artifacts":["forecast","calibration"],"gates":[{"code":"BACKTEST_STATUS_MISSING","severity":"warning","message":"BACKTEST_STATUS_MISSING: phase_07_calibration.yaml:backtest: no backtest_status, so the file does not say what Phase VII established. Phase VII retrodicts L_0/(1+g)^dt only, so the value is 'coherence_check' unless an anchor event carries a published_line_retrodiction (conventions/uncertainty.md §Backtest)","ref":"phase_07_calibration.yaml"}],"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"a5139acb9b42e0ddebc935d51668765cf5c2da90e2b536cfad36c7a579f1b40a","at":"2026-05-22","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"a5139acb9b42e0ddebc935d51668765cf5c2da90e2b536cfad36c7a579f1b40a","at":"2026-05-22","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"published","label":"Published","status":"frozen","artifacts":["report","renders"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null}],"artifacts":{"scope":{"type":"scope","path":"phase_00_input.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"5de178ddccb52e152106e77e14265d29e91dc8328777165ed5c0b6ece241c9db","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"5de178ddccb52e152106e77e14265d29e91dc8328777165ed5c0b6ece241c9db","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"5de178ddccb52e152106e77e14265d29e91dc8328777165ed5c0b6ece241c9db","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}]},"baseline":{"type":"baseline","path":"phase_02_baseline.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"df92dea9f0ac9a4dd7a82f5b208a02c2b27944a6274ea93414e6d6e269ecefd8","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]},"trajectory":{"type":"trajectory","path":"phase_03_trajectory.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"9fc43b9af1a78e485d32880bcfc8ab17ecce5a5f82d5928e88cae38e24fd547c","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]},"ventures":{"type":"ventures","path":"phase_04_venture_inventory.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"categories":{"type":"categories","path":"phase_04_5_categories.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"serviceability":{"type":"serviceability","path":"phase_04_6_serviceability.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"descriptions":{"type":"descriptions","path":"phase_04_catalog_descriptions.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"identity":{"type":"identity","path":"venture_identity.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"domains":{"type":"domains","path":"venture_domains.yaml","exists":false,"hash":null,"signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"adoption":{"type":"adoption","path":"phase_05_adoption.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"6651f73d6439541a08e5b06db8832027f91488df9e865a88dda43826ea6115e8","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"6651f73d6439541a08e5b06db8832027f91488df9e865a88dda43826ea6115e8","at":"2026-05-21","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"6651f73d6439541a08e5b06db8832027f91488df9e865a88dda43826ea6115e8","at":"2026-05-21","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}]},"forecast":{"type":"forecast","path":"phase_06_final.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"449b7d923ca8e8ee2475f617ada1d2fdd6a869f22d70c81c92d98b52b9f43ab9","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]},"calibration":{"type":"calibration","path":"phase_07_calibration.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"a5139acb9b42e0ddebc935d51668765cf5c2da90e2b536cfad36c7a579f1b40a","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"a5139acb9b42e0ddebc935d51668765cf5c2da90e2b536cfad36c7a579f1b40a","at":"2026-05-22","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"a5139acb9b42e0ddebc935d51668765cf5c2da90e2b536cfad36c7a579f1b40a","at":"2026-05-22","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}]},"evidence":{"type":"evidence","path":"phase_09_evidence.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"eea7f0d35e2f67039e6f8840cf32dc07580d7b76e04d23846d05321d0c88e0a4","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]},"matrix":{"type":"matrix","path":"phase_10_matrix.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"7138672e732b0925419b3f114d09074923f46243062dbfdde045bc858fe4f8a9","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[{"lead":"Fabian Vagnoni","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"7138672e732b0925419b3f114d09074923f46243062dbfdde045bc858fe4f8a9","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"},{"lead":"Marian Garabana","decision":"approve","artifact_hash":"7138672e732b0925419b3f114d09074923f46243062dbfdde045bc858fe4f8a9","at":"2026-06-07","notes":"Recorded in the artifact's reviewers block"}]},"renders":{"type":"renders","path":"phase_11_render.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"cbf0aa6d655d3a2b7917fc4fe2cfcb708dbb9ef26e68d5a9a3c921bc2deb9117","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]},"report":{"type":"report","path":"synthesis_report.md","exists":true,"hash":"fa07c7b6ed496a57d9f4f6fa40fd98c705c2d1a65ed926c72bf2258db30c603f","signed_off":true,"signoffs":[]}},"headline":{"L0":{"value":8000000000.0,"lower":5000000000.0,"upper":11000000000.0,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"L_t10_unmitigated":{"value":13031157014.219536,"lower":6917883109.576378,"upper":23096688552.37866,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"L_t10_mitigated":{"value":4445386302.518775,"lower":4306386958.730774,"upper":2457615724.399057,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"avoided_t10":{"value":8585770711.700761,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"avoided_share":{"value":0.6588648039718967,"unit":"share"},"actor_share":{"value":0.08,"lower":0.04,"upper":0.2,"unit":"share"},"actor_L_t10":{"value":355630904.201502,"lower":172255478.34923097,"upper":491523144.8798114,"unit":"EUR/yr"}},"scope_rationale":"Flood damage to property is a discrete physical event with credible mitigating\ntechnologies in each of the three H/V/R channels. Hazard (H) is addressed by\ncivil flood defences and nature-based hazard reduction (levees/dikes per the\nDutch Delta model, retention basins, wetland and floodplain restoration,\nupstream catchment management). Vulnerability (V) is addressed by\nflood-resistant building codes and materials, dry/wet floodproofing\nretrofits, property-level water sensors and automatic shutoffs, and AI early\nwarning systems (Google FloodHub, Previsico, FloodMapp, ECMWF AIFS) that\nenable pre-event protective action. Recovery (R) is addressed by drone and\nAI-based damage assessment, AI claims triage, modular rapid-repair\nconstruction, and post-event temporary-housing logistics. The driver to\nclaim transmission (increased precipitation extremes and runoff under\nclimate change → property water damage) is physical, not contractual or\nlitigation-driven, so condition (3) of the fit-check holds.\n"}