{"run_id":"2026-flooding-europe","schema_version":"v0.7","unit":"EUR","base_year":2025,"horizon_years":10,"unmitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2025,"base":8000000000.0,"low":5000000000.0,"high":11000000000.0},{"t":1,"year":2026,"base":8400000000.0,"low":5165000000.0,"high":11847000000.0},{"t":2,"year":2027,"base":8820000000.0,"low":5335444999.999999,"high":12759219000.0},{"t":3,"year":2028,"base":9261000000.000002,"low":5511514684.999998,"high":13741678862.999998},{"t":4,"year":2029,"base":9724050000.000002,"low":5693394669.604999,"high":14799788135.450998},{"t":5,"year":2030,"base":10210252500.000002,"low":5881276693.701962,"high":15939371821.880724},{"t":6,"year":2031,"base":10720765125.000004,"low":6075358824.594127,"high":17166703452.165539},{"t":7,"year":2032,"base":11256803381.250004,"low":6275845665.805733,"high":18488539617.982285},{"t":8,"year":2033,"base":11819643550.312504,"low":6482948572.777322,"high":19912157168.566917},{"t":9,"year":2034,"base":12410625727.82813,"low":6696885875.678973,"high":21445393270.54657},{"t":10,"year":2035,"base":13031157014.219536,"low":6917883109.576378,"high":23096688552.37866}],"mitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2025,"base":4987262662.1604395,"low":3886798143.209024,"high":4541349985.710993},{"t":1,"year":2026,"base":4973351061.297779,"low":3929289455.159038,"high":4288476842.8320093},{"t":2,"year":2027,"base":4957456903.97101,"low":3971900448.408882,"high":4039348415.7019362},{"t":3,"year":2028,"base":4939562142.45458,"low":4014621452.2839212,"high":3794551924.0209026},{"t":4,"year":2029,"base":4784596800.145115,"low":3998728940.3252463,"high":3380206450.0370493},{"t":5,"year":2030,"base":4629291708.042036,"low":3981633439.3480954,"high":2994494234.496512},{"t":6,"year":2031,"base":4597480949.473467,"low":4044983684.26378,"high":2890510442.436607},{"t":7,"year":2032,"base":4563203279.808752,"low":4109130025.0813413,"high":2784593516.5073338},{"t":8,"year":2033,"base":4526439206.825262,"low":4174076678.6768894,"high":2676975235.3836155},{"t":9,"year":2034,"base":4487171697.881811,"low":4239827696.8389335,"high":2567898299.790734},{"t":10,"year":2035,"base":4445386302.518775,"low":4306386958.730774,"high":2457615724.399057}],"waterfall":[],"channel_decomposition":{"hazard_mitigation":{"M":0.47432415524999993,"contribution_eur":6180992542.699793},"vulnerability_mitigation":{"M":0.264255848,"contribution_eur":1810196021.3609216},"recovery_mitigation":{"M":0.11797338684159997,"contribution_eur":594582147.6400456},"total_avoided_vs_unmitigated_eur":8585770711.700761},"actor_view":{"vig_market_share":{"value":0.08,"lower":0.04,"upper":0.2,"sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"vig_annual_report_2024","page_or_span":"VIG reported EUR 617 million in gross claims from Storm Boris (September 2024), described as 'the largest loss event in our 200-year history'."},{"wiki_source_id":"munichre_natcat_stats_2024_factsheet","page_or_span":"Czech Republic/Austria/Poland/Italy/Slovakia/Romania/Hungary, Storm Boris flood, 12-21 September 2024: overall losses US$4.3 bn, insured losses US$2.1 bn."},{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2026","page_or_span":"In 2024, severe floods in Europe and the UAE resulted in estimated insured losses of close to USD 13 billion to date, according to Swiss Re; European water-related insured losses ~USD 11 bn."}]},"vig_view_at_t10":{"L_base_eur":355630904.201502,"L_low_eur":172255478.34923097,"L_high_eur":491523144.8798114}},"params":{"L_0":{"value":8000000000,"lower":5000000000,"upper":11000000000,"unit":"EUR per year (2025 prices), insured property flood losses","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2025","page_or_span":"p. 8 — 'water-related insured losses [in Europe] were USD 11 billion (excluding tropical cyclone-related flood losses)'; Table 3 p. 29 — Europe 2024 NatCat insured USD 14.7 bn","note":"Sets the 2024-observed upper anchor of the bracket. Above-trend year driven by Valencia DANA, Storm Boris, Germany May/Jun."},{"wiki_source_id":"munichre_natcat_stats_2024_factsheet","page_or_span":"p. 2-3 — Europe 2024 insured US$14 bn; three named flood events sum US$8.5 bn (Valencia US$4.2 bn, Germany US$2.2 bn, Storm Boris US$2.1 bn)","note":"Independent corroboration of the 2024 upper anchor within ~6% of Swiss Re's figure."},{"wiki_source_id":"jrc_peseta_iv_river_floods_news_2023","page_or_span":"section 'Smoothly adapting or reacting to increased damage' — '€7.6 billion currently river flood economic damage in EU+UK'","note":"Modelled multi-year-mean baseline; converted to insured ~€4-5 bn river-only at ~55% blended penetration. Anchors the lower band when combined with coastal (€0.7 bn insured per IPCC) and a pluvial residual."},{"wiki_source_id":"ipcc_ar6_wg2_ch13_europe","page_or_span":"section 13.2.1.1 (Risk of Coastal Flooding and Erosion) — 'Expected annual (direct) damages due to coastal flooding are projected to rise from 1.3 billion EUR today'","note":"Coastal-flood component of the typical-year baseline; supplements PESETA IV river-only damage."}]},"g":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.033,"upper":0.077,"unit":"fraction per year, real (Europe-flood-specific, combined climate signal + exposure growth)","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2026","page_or_span":"p. 23 (Figure 17 — Insured loss growth from floods in Europe, decomposition) — 'Total: 5.0% per year [3.3%, 7.7%]'; 'Europe's insured flood losses have grown at a moderate 5% annually'; WCE ~5% vs SEU ~6%","note":"Primary anchor for Phase II g_climate after sigma 1/2026 ingestion. Europe-flood-specific, peer-reviewable decomposition with explicit ranges. Climate-only residual is -0.4% [-2.0, +0.8] — adaptation offsetting climate signal historically."},{"wiki_source_id":"swissre_sigma_1_2025","page_or_span":"p. 4 (Executive summary) and p. 5 — 'long-term trend rate of 5–7% annually in real terms' (global all-peril)","note":"Preceding annual edition; consistent with sigma 1/2026's continued 5-7% framing. Retained as supporting source for forward-looking trend."},{"wiki_source_id":"munichre_natcat_stats_2024_factsheet","page_or_span":"p. 1 — 10-year average (2014-2023) US$94 bn; 2024 US$140 bn (inflation-adjusted)","note":"Implied global all-peril empirical 10y real CAGR ≈ 4.1%; cross-check on Swiss Re's trend framing."},{"wiki_source_id":"jrc_peseta_iv_river_floods_news_2023","page_or_span":"section 'Smoothly adapting...' — €7.6 bn → €44 bn river flood economic damage at 3°C GWL by 2100, no-adaptation","note":"Pure climate-signal component (no-adaptation counterfactual), ≈2.4%/year economic-damage CAGR. Complements sigma 1/2026's historical-with-adaptation finding."},{"wiki_source_id":"ipcc_ar6_wg2_ch13_europe","page_or_span":"section 13.2.1.2.1 (Riverine and pluvial flooding) — '3× damages at 1.5°C GWL, 4× at 2°C, 6× at 3°C' (Alfieri/Dottori); section 13.1.4 (European Climate: Main Conclusions of WGI AR6) — precipitation extremes high-confidence increases in NEU and EEU","note":"Assessment-grade attribution lineage. Compatible with sigma 1/2026's empirical decomposition under the assumption that adaptation continues to offset climate signal."}]},"categories":[],"policy":"envelope","rebase":"legacy","outcome_line":"I3"},"diagnostics":["bracket not ordered (low <= base <= high fails) at t=[0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10]; policy='legacy'. The 'envelope' policy guarantees ordering.","mitigated central at t=0 is 37.7% below observed L_0: base-year adoption is being credited against a baseline that already contains it (addressable_share.md §5). Compute with REBASE_RATIO, which divides the retained factor by its t=0 value and makes the gap zero by construction (issue #53)."],"available":true,"note":"Mitigated path read from the Phase VI artifact; the waterfall is recomputed from the matrix with the same policy."}