{"id":"2026-wildfire-southern-europe","title":"Wildfire damage to property, Southern Europe (ES + PT + IT + GR)","kind":"pilot","pack":"insurance","scope":{"industry":"insurance","driver":"Climate Change","outcome":"Wildfire damage to property","geography":"Southern Europe (ES + PT + IT + GR)","base_year":2026,"horizon_years":10,"unit":"EUR","actor":"VIG"},"frozen_at":null,"stage":"scoped","stage_label":"Scope","status":"draft","venture_count":64,"category_count":12,"method_hash":"77b20a9f4d265866aa560ba793c72510ac5664c7f2d021d059e7b88099003a40","pack_hash":"64bf86c9eab1cf635306b9608fac07d0459e93ba1053557558596d91e1422627","scope_hash":"442b3b08c4beac5e5c154d0d0cc7898737615461bb066bd8d73baa2784a18ecf","updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:37+00:00","readonly":true,"readonly_reason":"Repository pilot. The engine reads it and never rewrites it; sign-offs made here are recorded in engine state.","stages":[{"key":"scoped","label":"Scope","status":"draft","artifacts":["scope"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"evidence","label":"Evidence","status":"draft","artifacts":["sources"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":"110 source pages in the wiki"},{"key":"ventures","label":"Ventures","status":"draft","artifacts":["ventures","categories","serviceability","identity","domains"],"gates":[{"code":"POOL_QUOTA_UNDERFILL","severity":"warning","message":"POOL_QUOTA_UNDERFILL channel=R metric=volume actual=14 threshold=20","ref":"phase_04_venture_inventory.yaml"}],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"parameters","label":"Parameters","status":"draft","artifacts":["baseline","adoption"],"gates":[{"code":"SATURATION_CAP_UPPER_BAND","severity":"warning","message":"SATURATION_CAP_UPPER_BAND: cat_h_aerial_suppression_surge_capacity.anchors.y10.upper = 0.92 > saturation_cap 0.9 (central value within cap)","ref":"phase_05_adoption.yaml"},{"code":"VALIDATOR","severity":"warning","message":"phase_05_adoption.yaml declares no base_year, so the year the y0 anchors are observed in cannot be checked against phase_02_baseline.yaml. Set it on every new pilot (adoption.md, Base Year).","ref":"phase_05_adoption.yaml"},{"code":"VALIDATOR","severity":"warning","message":"base_year 2026 is not a completed calendar year (last completed: 2025): y0 is then a mid-year estimate rather than an observation, and L_0 cannot yet be observed for that year (adoption.md, Base Year).","ref":"phase_05_adoption.yaml"}],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"matrix","label":"Impact matrix","status":"draft","artifacts":["matrix"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"computed","label":"Computed","status":"draft","artifacts":["forecast","calibration"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null},{"key":"published","label":"Published","status":"draft","artifacts":["report","renders"],"gates":[],"signoffs":[],"keys_required":2,"note":null}],"artifacts":{"scope":{"type":"scope","path":"phase_00_input.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"1f1c428910bcd9db6cf687b5f0242c6966ee09cc48f541f7ae4d782ca8405f97","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"baseline":{"type":"baseline","path":"phase_02_baseline.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"3c1ee9921c6e36d0dcce25089813e4a71633b93f5b14fd9b3d78d5d11e15d4a9","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"trajectory":{"type":"trajectory","path":"phase_03_trajectory.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"5fa4b210069291f4e9ee1b9ceecd93332bd06a62ed87c9bf72223c10c646b866","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"ventures":{"type":"ventures","path":"phase_04_venture_inventory.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"57696a5d0e5a6df07068a61effb5e38cfb81e649db3b6bd570e31778211f5991","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"categories":{"type":"categories","path":"phase_04_5_categories.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"44cda7fb8785f03c62689457b9217339c75313713769588f02637cde5e60ade4","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"serviceability":{"type":"serviceability","path":"phase_04_6_serviceability.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"bc01cbb7a7bf9cfa261fa90c1daa5e895880fd27f1a18e2ed47bc96d02c3f8cb","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"descriptions":{"type":"descriptions","path":"phase_04_catalog_descriptions.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"e49109bab0e7850c2f8fae453a4213a3d8523012941101155c8f3fc9b2c274e0","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"identity":{"type":"identity","path":"venture_identity.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"8246dbb3b33d76faa82a09c0640c513c0488db50c3a53d6a7de34962cdfe9d86","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"domains":{"type":"domains","path":"venture_domains.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"8886a2b2997edabf09d37d8f95f22f50ec93f0b8db666a04778ca7cef84dd0a8","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"adoption":{"type":"adoption","path":"phase_05_adoption.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"6917ea029fc281d6a3e7e52443ac16ede78c49c147e1ea8c644fb16d40fb19b1","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"forecast":{"type":"forecast","path":"phase_06_final.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"72ddc0df7f60d58c20a1c512acbeea2d757acf2371d61193a7fb3b4ee29db342","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"calibration":{"type":"calibration","path":"phase_07_calibration.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"dbd050250cec1c3b2c8be1574c26f139b840b7415c4d7bb8f5a3b7b1c5e0164c","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"evidence":{"type":"evidence","path":"phase_09_evidence.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"7c42d01dbc791062d62db588ad79f7f642aa458a7ffe41d5a3542997a6d89928","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"matrix":{"type":"matrix","path":"phase_10_matrix.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"ae2017d99a7a32a7ab9a3f519ad8fa26a7b42487b909f21411d084782f10223a","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"renders":{"type":"renders","path":"phase_11_render.yaml","exists":true,"hash":"09b612fc96a20b674a7e92bbb8b403fc79c9c5d06f043f32937aca5d3633634b","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]},"report":{"type":"report","path":"synthesis_report.md","exists":true,"hash":"e0ebb4e82fca551dcf75b36783698af0be7f5480e947076875dff4db53a043a4","signed_off":false,"signoffs":[]}},"headline":{"L0":{"value":130000000.0,"lower":60000000.0,"upper":350000000.0,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"L_t10_unmitigated":{"value":211756301.48106745,"lower":60000000.0,"upper":907809861.0350008,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"L_t10_mitigated":{"value":163248953.8864487,"lower":40617566.51445165,"upper":874089081.3192117,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"avoided_t10":{"value":48507347.59461874,"unit":"EUR/yr"},"avoided_share":{"value":0.229071566018807,"unit":"share"},"actor_share":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"unit":"share"},"actor_L_t10":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"unit":"EUR/yr"}},"scope_rationale":"All three fit-check conditions of METHODOLOGY_SPEC §The Fit-Check hold for\n(Climate Change, Wildfire damage to property, ES+PT+IT+GR).\n\n(1) Discrete or quasi-discrete event. A wildfire is a discrete, dated,\ngeolocated event with a mapped perimeter. National civil-protection agencies\nand the JRC's European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) record\nindividual fires with ignition date, burned area and — where property is\naffected — structure counts. Losses are event-attributable rather than\ndiffuse or purely financial. The claim cause is physical property damage\n(dwellings, outbuildings, contents, business premises), not litigation or\nfinancial-market exposure.\n\n(2) At least one credible technology in each channel.\nHAZARD (H): the hazard here is the fire reaching the property, and it is\ngenuinely reducible. Landscape fuel management (mechanical thinning,\nprescribed burning, grazed fuel-break networks such as Andalusia's\npasto-cortafuegos), rural land-clearing mandates around dwellings (Portugal's\npost-2017 limpeza de terrenos regime), powerline-ignition prevention by\ndistribution utilities (vegetation management, covered conductor, fast\ntrip settings), and early detection plus rapid initial attack (camera-tower\nAI networks, IoT gas/heat sensors, thermal-infrared smallsat constellations,\naerial suppression fleets including EU rescEU) all act on ignition\nprobability or on fire size and intensity at the moment of property contact.\nVULNERABILITY (V): given fire contact, damage to the structure is strongly\nconditional on construction and on the immediate 0-30 m zone. Non-combustible\nroofing and cladding, ember-resistant vents and closures, WUI construction\nstandards, defensible-space clearing at parcel scale, and exterior\nsprinkler/gel protection all reduce loss given exposure.\nRECOVERY (R): post-event cost is reducible by satellite and UAV damage\nassessment, AI-assisted claims triage and pre-populated FNOL, parametric\ncovers that pay on a measured index rather than on a loss adjustment, and\nmodular or industrialised rebuild capacity that limits demand-surge\ninflation after a large event.\n\n(3) Driver-to-claim transmission is physical. Climate change acts through\nfire weather: higher temperatures, lower relative humidity, longer and more\nintense drought, and extended fire seasons raise the Fire Weather Index over\nthe Mediterranean basin. That raises ignition success, rate of spread and the\nfrequency of the extreme-behaviour (\"sixth generation\") fires that overwhelm\nsuppression and reach the wildland-urban interface. The transmission is\nmeteorological and combustion-physical, not contractual or behavioural-legal.\nTwo well-known confounders are recorded here rather than assumed away: land\nabandonment and consequent fuel accumulation in Mediterranean rural areas is\na non-climate driver operating in the same direction, and suppression\ncapability has historically improved fast enough to hold burned area flat or\ndeclining in several of these countries. Both are treated explicitly in\nPhase II when bracketing the growth rate, and the second is the reason the\nPhase X mitigation term must count only *new* adaptation above the\nalready-embedded historical suppression baseline.\n\nNo escape valve is required. R is not collapsed into V (wildfire property\nclaims have a substantial, separable rebuild-and-adjustment cost component),\nand the pilot is not run V-only.\n"}