{"run_id":"2026-wildfire-southern-europe","schema_version":"v0.7","unit":"EUR","base_year":2026,"horizon_years":10,"unmitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2026,"base":130000000.0,"low":60000000.0,"high":350000000.0},{"t":1,"year":2027,"base":136500000.0,"low":60000000.0,"high":385000000.00000006},{"t":2,"year":2028,"base":143325000.0,"low":60000000.0,"high":423500000.00000006},{"t":3,"year":2029,"base":150491250.00000003,"low":60000000.0,"high":465850000.0000001},{"t":4,"year":2030,"base":158015812.50000003,"low":60000000.0,"high":512435000.0000001},{"t":5,"year":2031,"base":165916603.12500006,"low":60000000.0,"high":563678500.0000002},{"t":6,"year":2032,"base":174212433.28125006,"low":60000000.0,"high":620046350.0000002},{"t":7,"year":2033,"base":182923054.94531256,"low":60000000.0,"high":682050985.0000005},{"t":8,"year":2034,"base":192069207.6925782,"low":60000000.0,"high":750256083.5000006},{"t":9,"year":2035,"base":201672668.07720712,"low":60000000.0,"high":825281691.8500006},{"t":10,"year":2036,"base":211756301.48106745,"low":60000000.0,"high":907809861.0350008}],"mitigated":[{"t":0,"year":2026,"base":130000000.0,"low":60000000.0,"high":350000000.0},{"t":1,"year":2027,"base":132627631.27077429,"low":56016506.27562435,"high":390412605.28674155},{"t":2,"year":2028,"base":135293227.7879118,"low":52260548.52600293,"high":435449600.7410202},{"t":3,"year":2029,"base":137996811.205742,"low":48721056.42882074,"high":485636119.0066058},{"t":4,"year":2030,"base":140005795.13151622,"low":46807080.580845386,"high":524569492.5143431},{"t":5,"year":2031,"base":142022453.87355605,"low":44959404.50311465,"high":566594772.298393},{"t":6,"year":2032,"base":146050965.11117744,"low":44060067.276655786,"high":617929295.7100083},{"t":7,"year":2033,"base":150185372.24572158,"low":43176450.54884587,"high":673907398.8027833},{"t":8,"year":2034,"base":154428150.53710505,"low":42308317.11676043,"high":734948428.7603822},{"t":9,"year":2035,"base":158781821.61256585,"low":41455432.82127151,"high":801509537.0495592},{"t":10,"year":2036,"base":163248953.8864487,"low":40617566.51445165,"high":874089081.3192117}],"waterfall":[{"id":"cat_h_aerial_suppression_surge_capacity","label":"Aerial Suppression and Cross-Border Surge Capacity","channel":"H","delta":-7935774.270751089,"start":211756301.48106745,"end":203820527.21031636},{"id":"cat_h_detection_forecasting_decision_support","label":"Wildfire Detection, Fire-Danger Forecasting and Suppression Decision Support","channel":"H","delta":-8596567.727287918,"start":203820527.21031636,"end":195223959.48302844},{"id":"cat_h_fire_management_programmes_and_statutes","label":"National and Regional Fire-Management Programmes and Statutes","channel":"H","delta":-1656029.1057299376,"start":195223959.48302844,"end":193567930.3772985},{"id":"cat_h_landscape_fuel_management","label":"Landscape Fuel Management and Grazed Fuel-Break Networks","channel":"H","delta":-3326016.026429355,"start":193567930.3772985,"end":190241914.35086915},{"id":"cat_h_utility_corridor_ignition_prevention","label":"Utility-Corridor Ignition Prevention","channel":"H","delta":-5735937.1161066,"start":190241914.35086915,"end":184505977.23476255},{"id":"cat_v_defensible_space_clearance","label":"Statutory Defensible-Space Clearance at the Building Perimeter","channel":"V","delta":-9085885.799210548,"start":184505977.23476255,"end":175420091.435552},{"id":"cat_v_noncombustible_envelope_fabric","label":"Non-Combustible Permanent Building-Envelope Fabric","channel":"V","delta":-394793.9042060375,"start":175420091.435552,"end":175025297.53134596},{"id":"cat_v_retrofit_ember_path_protection","label":"Retrofit Ember- and Heat-Path Protection for Existing Buildings","channel":"V","delta":-735326.8476859629,"start":175025297.53134596,"end":174289970.68366},{"id":"cat_v_vulnerability_assessment_targeting","label":"Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment, Scoring and Targeting","channel":"V","delta":-3143506.485276431,"start":174289970.68366,"end":171146464.19838357},{"id":"cat_r_physical_restoration_capacity","label":"Physical Restoration and Reinstatement Capacity","channel":"R","delta":-4962323.739152342,"start":171146464.19838357,"end":166184140.45923123},{"id":"cat_r_post_event_damage_establishment","label":"Post-Event Damage Establishment and Claims Quantification","channel":"R","delta":-2935186.5727825463,"start":166184140.45923123,"end":163248953.88644868},{"id":"cat_r_public_recovery_substitution","label":"Public Post-Event Recovery Substitution and Backstops","channel":"R","delta":0.0,"start":163248953.88644868,"end":163248953.88644868}],"channel_decomposition":{"hazard_mitigation":{"M":0.12868719398530526,"contribution_eur":25665387.89649807},"vulnerability_mitigation":{"M":0.07240693898702555,"contribution_eur":14022658.846795872},"recovery_mitigation":{"M":0.04614474712594996,"contribution_eur":8819300.851324802},"total_avoided_vs_unmitigated_eur":48507347.59461874},"actor_view":{"vig_market_share":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"unit":"fraction of the ES+PT+IT+GR insured wildfire property market written by VIG on a primary basis","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"vig_markets_2026","page_or_span":"Embedded country-code map in the `marketextended` component: AL, AT, BG, BY, CZ, DE, DK, EE, GE, HR, HU, LI, LT, LV, MD, ME, MK, NO, PL, RO, RS, SE, SI, SK, TR, UA, XK, FN. ES, PT, IT and GR absent. Whole-document string count over 668,766 bytes: zero 'Spain', zero 'Portugal', zero 'Greece', one 'Italy'.","note":"VIG's own corporate market listing. The single Italian occurrence is a reinsurance statement about VIG Re Germany, not a primary-market entry. The bracket is [0.0, 0.0] rather than [0.0, small] because the absence is categorical on the primary side, not a measurement with uncertainty."}]},"vig_view_at_t10":{"L_base_eur":0.0,"L_low_eur":0.0,"L_high_eur":0.0},"vig_view_note":"Zero on every line because VIG writes no primary insurance in Spain, Portugal, Italy or Greece. This is a categorical absence established from VIG's own market listing, not a small number rounded down. The unquantified VIG Re Germany reinsurance channel into Italy is recorded as a named evidence gap in phase_06_vig_inputs.yaml and is deliberately NOT folded into the share."},"params":{"L_0":{"value":130000000,"lower":60000000,"upper":350000000,"unit":"EUR per year (2026 prices), insured property loss from wildfire, ES+PT+IT+GR","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"eiopa_protection_gap_input_dataset","page_or_span":"sheet 'Historical and estimated pg', Peril = Wildfire, DB version 2025 — Spain economic 4,099.906 / insured 2.670; Portugal 8,351.460 / 387.422; Italy 6,460.384 / 2,068.826; Greece 4,416.366 / 153.687 (M EUR, CPI-adjusted). Four-country totals 23,328.116 economic / 2,612.605 insured = 11.2% insured.","note":"Primary anchor. Cumulative 1980-2024, so the implied 58.1 M EUR/yr insured mean is a 45-year average across decades of much lower insurance penetration. It sets the LOWER bound, not the central. Per-country insured shares are NOT usable - see the contradictions block on [[wildfire_insured_losses_southern_europe]]: Italy carries 79% of the insured total at a 32% share while EIOPA's own scheme comment says Italy provides no standalone wildfire guarantee."},{"wiki_source_id":"eiopa_protection_gap_technical_description","page_or_span":"p. 19 — 'the dashboard considers 45 years of historical data (from 1980 to 2024)'; p. 18 — losses 'adjusted to the current value as done in the EM-DAT database using the Consumer Price Index'; p. 19 — Spanish insured-loss data substituted with Consorcio data; Annex p. 28 — wildfire risk is 'Expert judgement' for all 30 countries.","note":"Makes the input dataset interpretable: fixes the window, confirms CPI adjustment, and documents the Spanish substitution that produces the 0% Spanish insured share. The Annex finding is load-bearing on its own - the EU supervisor has no catastrophe model for wildfire in any member state, unlike earthquake and flood."},{"wiki_source_id":"gallagher_re_natcat_climate_report_2026","page_or_span":"Figure 30, EMEA event map, p. 45 — 'Portugal / Spain Wildfires — Eco: USD2.0 billion / Ins: USD0.3 billion'. Appendix event table p. 61 (economic only, no insured column): Spain >USD1,150 m, Portugal >USD800 m, Italy >USD700 m; no Greek entry.","note":"Sets the UPPER bound. The 2025 season was the most destructive in the EU record (1,079,538 ha). USD 0.3 bn for Spain+Portugal is roughly EUR 0.28 bn; adding plausible Italian and Greek insured loss gives EUR 0.30-0.35 bn for the four countries in the worst modern year. Implied insured share ~15%, above the 45-year 11.2%, consistent with rising penetration."},{"wiki_source_id":"reinsurance_news_attica_2018_insured_loss","page_or_span":"EAEE initial estimate: 'the total initial value of insurance pay-outs... amounts to at least EUR 33.7 million'; property component EUR 32.4 m across 785 claims, average EUR 41,300; 212 motor claims EUR 1.3 m.","note":"T3, and the only hard per-event insured figure for any of the four countries. Europe's deadliest modern wildfire (96 fatalities) produced EUR 33.7 m of insured loss. Included as a scale check on how thin the insured layer is in a low-penetration market, not as support for the central value."},{"wiki_source_id":"insurance_journal_2026_marsh_europe_wildfire","page_or_span":"Tyson Vickery, Marsh: 'Spain's 2025 wildfire season resulted in close to EUR 5 billion in economic losses, of which only EUR 1 billion was insured.'","note":"RECORDED AS AN UNRESOLVED CONFLICT, NOT AS SUPPORT. Marsh puts Spain alone 2-3x above Gallagher Re's figure for Spain AND Portugal combined. The implied insured shares are close (~20% vs ~15%), so the disagreement is about event size, not penetration. Gallagher Re is the better-documented figure; Marsh's is a verbal media attribution with no published basis, and Spain's firefighting bill alone has been reported separately in the billions, suggesting suppression cost may be inside Marsh's 'economic'. If Marsh is validated, L_0.upper roughly triples. This is the first thing the leads should adjudicate."}]},"g":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.1,"unit":"fraction per year, real (ES+PT+IT+GR wildfire insured property loss; combined climate signal + exposure growth + penetration catch-up)","sources":[{"wiki_source_id":"risk_and_insurance_sigma_2026_loss_drivers","page_or_span":"'Since 1996, insured losses have grown at an average annual rate of 5% to 7% in real terms'; 'Exposure growth explains more than 80% of the upward trend in global weather-related insured losses since 1970.'","note":"T2 trade press quoting Swiss Re sigma 1/2026; the sigma primary returned HTTP 403 from bot protection and was NOT bypassed. Anchors the central value's SHAPE: growth in this class of parameter is exposure-driven, not hazard-driven. The same article's '12% per year' wildfire figure is deliberately NOT used - it carries no stated geography or period and sits between two North-America sentences. See the carve-out in method_notes."},{"wiki_source_id":"turco_2018_mediterranean_burned_area_projections","page_or_span":"Abstract — 'the burned area is robustly projected to increase... ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios'; +40-54% at 1.5 C, +62-87% at 2 C, +96-187% at 3 C, summer burned area, Mediterranean Europe (PT/ES/southern FR/IT/GR).","note":"Upper half of the bracket, and the best-quantified climate-signal source for exactly this domain. These are WARMING-LEVEL STEP CHANGES with no dates attached; the paper's timing table is not in the snapshot. They must never be read as annual rates. Over ~0.2-0.3 C of warming in ten years the implied climate contribution to MEAN burned area is well under 1%/yr."},{"wiki_source_id":"turco_2016_decreasing_fires_mediterranean","page_or_span":"Abstract — 'BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value)'; number of fires -59%. Significant negative trend in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greek burned area; Portugal ambiguous.","note":"Lower half of the bracket, same lead author and same domain as the projection above. Measured burned area FELL across these countries over 1985-2011 while the climate warmed, attributed by the authors to 'an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's'. This is why g.lower is 0.000 rather than comfortably positive: a T1-supported reading in which continued suppression improvement holds real insured loss flat is available and must be carried."},{"wiki_source_id":"eea_forest_fires_indicator","page_or_span":"'the burnt area of the Mediterranean region has decreased slightly since 1980, indicating that fire control efforts have been effective'; 'burnt area in EUMED5 countries could double under 3 C global warming'.","note":"The rare source carrying both directions in EU-official wording on one page. Confirms that the historical loss series is already POST-mitigation - fire danger rose while realised burned area fell - which is also the basis for the Phase X rule that only NEW adaptation above the suppression baseline may be credited."},{"wiki_source_id":"jrc_pesetaiv_wildfires_policy_brief","page_or_span":"'The number of European citizens living near wildland and exposed to at least 10 days of high-to-extreme fire danger per year is projected to increase from 63 million in the present to 78 million with 3 C global warming, an increase of 15 million people (24%). When global warming is restricted to 1.5 C, an additional 5 million people would be exposed compared to now.'","note":"The exposure-growth component, and the only European wildland-urban-interface exposure trajectory in the corpus at a stated warming level. A verified WUI AREA growth rate could not be obtained: the Guo et al. 2024 Science Advances paper was fetched twice and returned a Google reCAPTCHA interstitial both times, so it was discarded rather than quoted."},{"wiki_source_id":"eurostat_construction_prices_2026","page_or_span":"EU residential construction prices +48.2% over 2015-2025; annual +2.3% (2024) and +1.3% (2025); slowest decade risers Italy +17.0% and Greece +17.3%.","note":"The rebuild-cost drift component, and it argues AGAINST a large contribution: nominal decade growth in Italy and Greece is ~1.6%/yr, at or below general inflation, so the REAL rebuild-cost term is close to zero for two of the four countries. Spain and Portugal are absent from this page and must be pulled from the underlying Eurostat dataset before sign-off."},{"wiki_source_id":"eiopa_protection_gap_input_dataset","page_or_span":"Four-country cumulative insured share 11.2% (2,612.605 of 23,328.116 M EUR); country penetration bands ES 75-100%, PT 25-50%, IT 25-50%, EL 0-25%.","note":"The insurance-penetration-catch-up component, and the largest single contributor to the central value. With an 11% insured share the headroom is enormous, and unlike the climate signal it does not depend on a projection being right. It is also the component that makes growth POLITICALLY DISCONTINUOUS - see [[wildfire_protection_gap_southern_europe]]."},{"wiki_source_id":"eea_eucra_2024","page_or_span":"'In southern Europe, risks related to wildfires are already rated as critical, which leads to the urgency rating urgent action needed.' Risk row 'Population/built environment due to wildfires (hotspot region: southern Europe)'.","note":"Assessment-grade framing, ordinal not numeric. EUCRA assigns no wildfire number of any kind. Supports the sign and the urgency, not the magnitude. Its one large euro figure (EUR 1 trillion/yr) is coastal flood at end-of-century and is a scope trap."}]},"categories":[{"id":"cat_h_detection_forecasting_decision_support","name":"Wildfire Detection, Fire-Danger Forecasting and Suppression Decision Support","channel":"H","mitigation":0.916,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.01,"upper":0.12,"source":"h_satellites_on_fire_allianz: 'summer 2026 is an initial implementation phase to validate scope and effectiveness' — the new minutes-latency alerting layer is at validation, not deployment, at base year. Greece's constellation launched May 2026 and Dryad has no named Southern-European end customer. Analyst-inferred from this page that the FORWARD INCREMENT over the 2026 detection system stands at roughly 5%; the installed detection coverage itself is inside L_0 and is not counted."},"y3":{"value":0.22,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.35,"source":"h_aegis_espa_budget: AEGIS funds 'systemata proeidopoiisis kai mesa prolipsis' — a national AI fire database, fire-detection systems, meteorological stations and radar and a 112 upgrade — with EUR 1.5 bn tendered inside nine months and 'oi paralaves ton ergon tha arxisoun apo to 2025'. Analyst-inferred programme-timetable read: the Greek limb of the increment is largely delivered by 2029, the Spanish insurer-alerting limb is past validation, Portugal and Italy have announced nothing."},"y5":{"value":0.35,"lower":0.15,"upper":0.52,"source":"h_effis_hazard_baseline: EFFIS is the free pan-European fire-danger and risk layer already operating across the geography, so the forecasting limb of this row has an increment near zero and the curve is carried almost entirely by the detection limb. Analyst-inferred from that baseline position, not read off the page."},"y10":{"value":0.55,"lower":0.25,"upper":0.75,"source":"analyst_judgment_detection_y10_2026_08_02: blended 0.55 — detection limb approaching 0.75-0.85 of its own increment against a forecasting limb near 0.15-0.25, weighted by the ten constituents' six/four split. Assumes Greece completes, Spain generalises by commercial imitation, and Portugal and Italy each acquire a partial equivalent within ten years."}}},{"id":"cat_h_aerial_suppression_surge_capacity","name":"Aerial Suppression and Cross-Border Surge Capacity","channel":"H","mitigation":0.952,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.02,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.06,"source":"h_eu_civil_protection: 'The first planes are expected to be delivered early 2028' and the only delivered permanent-fleet asset so far is one helicopter, to Romania — outside the pilot geography. At base year essentially none of the announced forward addition is in service in ES/PT/IT/GR. The 2026 fleet itself is inside L_0 and is not counted here."},"y3":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.5,"source":"h_eu_civil_protection: 'the European Commission has allocated significant financial resources to the acquisition of 12 new firefighting planes to be based in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Croatia, and Greece ... The first planes are expected to be delivered early 2028.' Analyst-inferred delivery read: a partial permanent fleet in service by 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.55,"lower":0.3,"upper":0.75,"source":"h_aegis_espa_budget: the Greek aerial tranche — '7 Canadair, 10 elikoptera mesaiou typou, 25 amfivia monokinitira aeroskafi, 1100 ochimata tis pyrosvestikis' — inside a EUR 2.1 bn programme whose deliveries begin in 2025. Combined with the rescEU schedule, analyst-inferred that most of the announced increment lands by 2031."},"y10":{"value":0.8,"lower":0.5,"upper":0.92,"source":"analyst_judgment_aerial_surge_y10_2026_08_02: 0.80 books a fifth of the announced increment as never arriving or arriving after 2036. This is a procurement delivery schedule, not a diffusion curve; the cap of 0.90 records that some delivered capacity is structurally un-mobilisable in simultaneous Southern-European seasons, which is exactly when the largest insured losses occur."}}},{"id":"cat_h_fire_management_programmes_and_statutes","name":"National and Regional Fire-Management Programmes and Statutes","channel":"H","mitigation":0.984,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.02,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.06,"source":"h_programmes_portugal: AGIF already plans, strategically coordinates and evaluates the whole SGIFR in 2026, and 'apos aprovacao em Conselho de Ministros das pecas do PNGIFR - Estrategia e Cadeia de Processos - a AGIF encontra-se empenhada em ultimar o Programa Nacional de Acao (PNA) e na sua declinacao em Programas de Acao Regionais e Sub-Regionais'. The governance system itself is inside L_0; analyst-inferred that the base-year increment is the unfinished PNA/PRA declension alone."},"y3":{"value":0.22,"lower":0.08,"upper":0.4,"source":"h_sgifr_activity_report_2024: 'a prioridade atribuida a prevencao: 354 M EUR em 2024 vs 28 M EUR em 2017 o que acabou por representar uma evolucao do peso relativo face ao combate de 20% em 2017 para 55% em 2024'. Analyst-inferred: most of the Portuguese governance re-weighting has already happened and is inside L_0, so the forward increment is the tail of a completed reform plus the PNGIFR 2020-2030 declension, largely landing by 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.4,"lower":0.18,"upper":0.58,"source":"h_aegis_espa_budget: 'mesa se 9 mines prokiryxthikan diagonismoi 1,5 dis euro ... Oi paralaves ton ergon tha arxisoun apo to 2025' — the remaining AEGIS delivery and monitoring schedule is the Greek governance increment. Analyst-inferred; Spain's annual re-authorisation cycle already works so its increment is near zero, and Italy has no national instrument beyond a framework law."},"y10":{"value":0.55,"lower":0.25,"upper":0.7,"source":"analyst_judgment_programmes_y10_2026_08_02: 0.55 with a 0.70 cap because two of four countries contribute almost nothing to the increment and the mature limb of the system is already mature. Retrieval of the AEGIS Axis-2 line item — the category's standing next step — would let this anchor be re-derived from a budget rather than from judgment and should trigger a re-run."}}},{"id":"cat_h_landscape_fuel_management","name":"Landscape Fuel Management and Grazed Fuel-Break Networks","channel":"H","mitigation":0.956,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.03,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.08,"source":"h_sgifr_activity_report_2024: 'a GNR ... em 2024 identificou 991 freguesias no territorio continental ... representando 32% da superficie do Continente' and 'o grau de cumprimento voluntario da gestao de combustivel atingiu 60%'. The treated network and the enforcement machinery as they stand in 2026 are inside L_0; analyst-inferred that the base-year forward increment over them is close to nil."},"y3":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.05,"upper":0.28,"source":"h_sgifr_activity_report_2024: 'a GNR sinalizou 10.256 situacoes de incumprimento em 2024 ... constatando que cerca de 40% nao foram regularizadas'. THE HEADROOM IS 40% OF ALREADY-DETECTED BREACHES, NOT 40% OF THE POPULATION, plus the 68% of mainland Portugal outside the 991-freguesia footprint. Analyst-inferred that a modest share of that headroom is closed by 2029, given the footprint contracted from 998 to 991 freguesias and contra-ordenacao proceedings fell 8%."},"y5":{"value":0.25,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.4,"source":"h_grazing_fuel_reduction: RAPCA contracts graziers annually and 'el personal de campo de la Agencia de Medio Ambiente y Agua testea el cumplimiento de los objetivos establecidos de reduccion del matorral y el pasto y determina si procede el pago', a programme formally begun in 2005. Analyst-inferred network-extension analogue: contract-funded fuel-break expansion is budget-paced, so extension to 2031 is real but incremental."},"y10":{"value":0.42,"lower":0.15,"upper":0.58,"source":"analyst_judgment_fuel_management_y10_2026_08_02: 0.42 with a 0.60 cap. The binding constraint is enforcement reach, not landowner willingness, and treated networks are strips and bands rather than area treatment — a cap above 0.60 would assert a landscape-scale treatment programme no source in this pilot describes."}}},{"id":"cat_h_utility_corridor_ignition_prevention","name":"Utility-Corridor Ignition Prevention","channel":"H","mitigation":0.95,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.1,"lower":0.03,"upper":0.2,"source":"h_endesa_campaign_trade_press: 'Seventeen FuVeX long-range drones with digital cameras, LiDAR and thermography detect hot spots and anomalies invisible to the eye at up to 10 km range, feeding a network digital twin — the shift from reactive to predictive maintenance of critical infrastructure.' Seventeen aircraft at one Spanish DSO is a first-fleet deployment, not an installed base. Analyst-inferred that the predictive layer covers roughly a tenth of the addressable Southern-European corridor at base year."},"y3":{"value":0.35,"lower":0.15,"upper":0.55,"source":"h_eredes_municipal_execution: 'E-REDES will execute the 2025 fuel-management actions on the strips associated with high- and medium-voltage lines inscribed in the applicable planning instruments and forming part of the Secondary Fuel-Management Strip Network' — an annual, municipality-by-municipality statutory execution cycle onto which predictive-inspection tooling bolts directly. Analyst-inferred diffusion onto that existing cycle."},"y5":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.25,"upper":0.7,"source":"h_endesa_campaign_trade_press: the campaign carrying the drone fleet is growing 36% year on year. Analyst-inferred commercial S-curve read — this is the one Hazard row driven by a DSO opex decision rather than by a public programme timetable, and utility inspection-technology substitution runs on a five-to-ten-year fleet-replacement rhythm."},"y10":{"value":0.7,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.85,"source":"analyst_judgment_utility_corridor_y10_2026_08_02: 0.70 with a 0.85 cap, because predictive inspection addresses vegetation contact and equipment failure but not conductor slap in extreme wind. If the EUR 105 m campaign's vegetation-control split is ever retrieved and proves small, the category re-tiers out of `emerging` and this anchor must be re-run downward."}}},{"id":"cat_v_defensible_space_clearance","name":"Statutory Defensible-Space Clearance at the Building Perimeter","channel":"V","mitigation":0.865,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.3,"lower":0.18,"upper":0.45,"source":"h_sgifr_activity_report_2024: 'o grau de cumprimento voluntario da gestao de combustivel atingiu 60%' over an enforcement footprint of '991 freguesias ... 32% da superficie do Continente'. 60% is compliance INSIDE the enforced third, not a national rate, so Portugal blends to roughly 0.45 nationally. Analyst-inferred four-country blend at 0.30 — Portugal ~0.45, Greece ~0.30, Spain ~0.20, Italy ~0.05."},"y3":{"value":0.42,"lower":0.25,"upper":0.58,"source":"v_defensible_space_greece: the 2026 KYA governs 'tin proliptiki pyroprostasia idioktision, tis ypochreoseis katharismou oikopedikon ... kathos kai ti leitourgia tou Ethnikou Mitroou Tirisis Metron Proliptikis Pyroprostasias Idioktision', enforced through an administrative-fine regime under Law 4662/2020 with a EUR 1,000 non-declaration fine, municipal auto-clearing at EUR 0.50/m2 and a custodial sanction for false declaration. Analyst-inferred: a national register plus a severe sanction schedule moves declared compliance fast, and Greece is the fastest-moving limb to 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.3,"upper":0.66,"source":"v_defensible_space_programmes_es: Diputacio de Barcelona reported for 2025 '73 delimitation maps, 78 drafted perimeter-strip projects, 61 executed strip works, 309 hectares of protection strips executed and 266 municipalities supported' against a statutory scope of the 500 m band around urbanizations in forest terrain. Analyst-inferred: the Spanish limb scales by provincial programme throughput, which is serious but slow relative to the obligated area."},"y10":{"value":0.65,"lower":0.35,"upper":0.78,"source":"analyst_judgment_defensible_space_y10_2026_08_02: 0.65 with a 0.80 cap. Italy caps the row — it prescribes no national numeric clearance distance on a private owner — and clearance is an annual maintained state rather than a one-off installed act, so it saturates lower. The French OLD comparator shows decades of operation without universal compliance."}}},{"id":"cat_v_noncombustible_envelope_fabric","name":"Non-Combustible Permanent Building-Envelope Fabric","channel":"V","mitigation":0.9875,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.02,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.05,"source":"v_wui_building_standards_gap: 'Legge 353/2000's chapters cover forecasting, prevention, active suppression, administrative functions and finance, and none addresses construction, materials or building assemblies; Spain's CTE DB-SI contains no WUI or vegetation-fire-exposure provision.' Analyst-inferred: with no code trigger anywhere in the geography, conversion of the residual combustible envelope is happening only incidentally at base year."},"y3":{"value":0.06,"lower":0.02,"upper":0.12,"source":"v_defensible_space_portugal: Portugal administers prevention obligations through named legal instruments under the SGIFR Quadro Legal / Regulamentar — the regime within which Despacho 8591/2022, the only located WUI-specific building standard in the four countries, sits UNREAD by this pilot. Analyst-inferred that its reach is new-build only, so its contribution to 2029 conversion is small."},"y5":{"value":0.1,"lower":0.03,"upper":0.2,"source":"v_retrofit_cost_evidence: 'developers are already beginning to incorporate wildfire-resistant materials and methods into new homes without a significant impact on building costs, while the open question is how to upgrade millions of existing homes'. Analyst-inferred: new build converts nearly free but is a small share of the exposed stock, so the curve is a stock-turnover curve rather than a technology curve."},"y10":{"value":0.2,"lower":0.05,"upper":0.32,"source":"analyst_judgment_envelope_fabric_y10_2026_08_02: 0.20 with a 0.35 cap, anchored below the European energy-efficiency renovation-rate analogue because wildfire envelope conversion has neither subsidy nor directive. The residual combustible envelope surviving to 2026 sits disproportionately on older, rural, lower-value stock least likely to see a discretionary re-roofing."}}},{"id":"cat_v_retrofit_ember_path_protection","name":"Retrofit Ember- and Heat-Path Protection for Existing Buildings","channel":"V","mitigation":0.97,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.01,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.03,"source":"v_wui_building_standards_gap: 'EN 13501-1 under Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/364 defines A1 and A2-s1,d0 as the non-combustibility benchmark but tests flame spread and heat release, NOT wind-driven ember ingress' — and no European counterpart to ASTM E2886 exists, no located maker holds CE marking. Analyst-inferred: a product that cannot be certified against anything cannot be specified into a European contract, so base-year adoption is effectively nil."},"y3":{"value":0.03,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.08,"source":"v_tecnifuego_spain_negative_control: NEGATIVE CONTROL — the Spanish fire-protection industry association that collaborates with the administration on legislation publishes mainstream autoproteccion guidance that mentions no ember-resistant vents, exterior sprinklers, water curtains or fire gels at all. Analyst-inferred: no channel to market exists, so nothing material can happen by 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.06,"lower":0.01,"upper":0.15,"source":"v_retrofit_cost_evidence: 'retrofitting costs between USD 2,000 and USD 15,000 for simple and effective actions such as installing flame- and ember-resistant vents'. Analyst-inferred: cost is NOT the constraint — supply, standards and specification are — so the 2031 value is set by whether a European standard route has opened, not by affordability."},"y10":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.02,"upper":0.28,"source":"analyst_judgment_ember_retrofit_y10_2026_08_02: 0.15 with a 0.30 cap. Ten years is long enough for a CEN work item and a European entrant, and 0.15 books that path at partial completion. The cap reflects the ventilation penalty (net free area 81%/75%/71% for quarter-, eighth- and sixteenth-inch mesh) in hot Mediterranean roof spaces, which suppresses voluntary uptake independently of price."}}},{"id":"cat_v_vulnerability_assessment_targeting","name":"Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment, Scoring and Targeting","channel":"V","mitigation":0.96,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.01,"upper":0.12,"source":"v_fireprime_wuiview_projects: WUIVIEW was a EUR 572,015.58 UPC-led project whose Wildfire Vulnerability Assessment Tool was published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire in June 2023, and FIREPRIME's household tool assesses construction, design, nearby vegetation and flammable-item storage under UCPM GA 101140381. Analyst-inferred: these are research instruments, not deployed routing capacity, so almost no mitigation capacity is score-routed at base year."},"y3":{"value":0.2,"lower":0.08,"upper":0.35,"source":"v_defensible_space_greece: the KYA establishes 'ti leitourgia tou Ethnikou Mitroou Tirisis Metron Proliptikis Pyroprostasias Idioktision' — a national property-level compliance register that turns each property's mitigation state into an addressable record rather than an inference. Analyst-inferred: that register is the missing precondition for score-driven routing at national scale, and it lands inside the y3 window."},"y5":{"value":0.32,"lower":0.12,"upper":0.5,"source":"v_defensible_space_programmes_es: Spain's national portal is organised around coordination, prevention/preparation/extinction and statistics, with delivery through provincial perimeter-strip programmes — 309 hectares executed across 266 municipalities in 2025 against a 500 m statutory band. Analyst-inferred: capacity is far below the obligated area in every country, which is the operational reason an administration buys a ranking."},"y10":{"value":0.5,"lower":0.2,"upper":0.68,"source":"analyst_judgment_vuln_targeting_y10_2026_08_02: 0.50 with a 0.70 cap. Demand is real because capacity is short, but supply is a research layer rather than an industry — EUR 1.25 m total disclosed, entirely EU research grants, SilvIA pre-traction with no named client. The cap reflects that statutory annual duties fall on every obligated owner regardless of score."}}},{"id":"cat_r_post_event_damage_establishment","name":"Post-Event Damage Establishment and Claims Quantification","channel":"R","mitigation":0.958,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.03,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.08,"source":"r_copernicus_ems_rapid_mapping: the service is 'free of charge' with 908 rapid-mapping activations at fetch and activation 'restricted to authorised requesters — national civil-protection authorities, not claimants or insurers', with four Iberian and Greek wildfire activations live in the fetch window. The imagery limb is therefore already at full adoption inside L_0; analyst-inferred that the claimant-side last mile it does NOT reach stands near zero at base year."},"y3":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.05,"upper":0.28,"source":"r_copernicus_ems_wildfire_activations: 'Wildfires is a standing named component, not an ad-hoc activation category', and a single activation spanned Castilla y Leon and Norte Portugal on 30 Jul 2026. Analyst-inferred: the public layer is permanent and will not extend to per-policy triage, so the commercial residue is a stable, addressable object by 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.25,"lower":0.1,"upper":0.42,"source":"eiopa_protection_gap_technical_description: 'wildfire risk is assessed by expert judgement for all thirty countries in the protection-gap dashboard, where earthquake and flood are modelled' — the supervisory confirmation that no European wildfire catastrophe model exists in any member state. Analyst-inferred: that modelling vacuum is what the claimant-side and reconstruction layer has to fill, and it is only partly filled by 2031."},"y10":{"value":0.45,"lower":0.15,"upper":0.62,"source":"analyst_judgment_damage_establishment_y10_2026_08_02: 0.45 with a 0.70 cap. The number rests on ONE vendor whose named lines are motor, generic home and fleet with no wildfire capability evidenced, so it is a portability bet. The cap reflects that total losses need a total-loss determination rather than triage, and the free public footprint needs professional interpretation before it drives a claim."}}},{"id":"cat_r_physical_restoration_capacity","name":"Physical Restoration and Reinstatement Capacity","channel":"R","mitigation":0.9175,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.05,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.12,"source":"eurostat_construction_prices_2026: 'Residential building construction prices are up 48% since 2015 across the EU' — the official rebuild-cost level against which repair-over-replace economics are set. THE NUMBER IS ANALYST-INFERRED FROM THIS PAGE, NOT READ OFF IT: no source in this pilot measures retainer penetration or wildfire surge capacity for any of the four constituents, so the base-year increment over the existing generic structural-fire restoration base is judged near nil."},"y3":{"value":0.15,"lower":0.05,"upper":0.28,"source":"r_italy_post_fire_land_constraint: 'construction on burned land is banned for ten years and the land-use classification is frozen for fifteen' — a retainer buys nothing where the works cannot lawfully be performed, which structurally caps the Italian limb. Analyst-inferred from that constraint plus the absence of any evidenced wildfire capability: only a modest share of claims sit under a reserved-capacity arrangement by 2029."},"y5":{"value":0.25,"lower":0.08,"upper":0.4,"source":"eurostat_construction_prices_2026: every square metre restored rather than rebuilt is worth 48% more than when current panel arrangements were set. Analyst-inferred: that is a real commercial reason to expect insurer panel restructuring inside the window, and this is a row an insurer can move directly with no regulatory or standards precondition."},"y10":{"value":0.4,"lower":0.12,"upper":0.58,"source":"analyst_judgment_restoration_y10_2026_08_02: 0.40 with a 0.65 cap. Wildfire capability and mass-claim surge capacity are UNEVIDENCED for all four constituents, so this is a portability bet on generic structural-fire restoration; and a retainer only reallocates a fixed regional capacity between carriers, so sector-wide adoption cannot exceed the capacity that exists."}}},{"id":"cat_r_public_recovery_substitution","name":"Public Post-Event Recovery Substitution and Backstops","channel":"R","mitigation":1.0,"anchors":{"y0":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"source":"r_state_recovery_portugal: 'the SGIFR process chain explicitly lists Pos-Evento as one of six operational phases ... the portal itself publishes no figures on recovery activity.' The mechanism exists and operates in 2026, but it is an insured-share movement and is out of scope for the mitigation term, so adoption is set to a deliberate structural zero rather than to the real-world level of the machinery."},"y3":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"source":"r_state_recovery_greece: 'Kratiki Arogi consolidates Greek government measures ... with event-specific schemes and their own application platforms, and no benefit amounts, ceilings or eligibility thresholds published.' Discretionary, event-by-event and unquantified — and out of scope regardless. Held at structural zero."},"y5":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"source":"r_agroseguro_public_backstop: the only verified public backstop in the four countries that actually pays for wildfire covers agricultural, livestock, aquaculture and forestry lines, which phase_00_input.yaml.out_of_scope excludes; Spain's Consorcio does not cover wildfire property damage. Residential and commercial building loss — this pilot's scope — sits outside any state consortium. Held at structural zero."},"y10":{"value":0.0,"lower":0.0,"upper":0.0,"source":"eea_eucra_2024: 'the viability of EU solidarity funds is already critically threatened as these have been oversubscribed by costly events such as floods and wildfires; policies need to promote insurance with resilience-enhancing provisions that limit the stress on public finances following extreme events.' The direction of travel is public capacity SHRINKING, which is upside to insured loss, not mitigation. Held at structural zero; a legislative act bringing wildfire into the Spanish Consorcio or the Italian CatNat mandate is a Phase VII recalibration trigger, not a Phase V anchor."}}}],"policy":"envelope","rebase":"ratio","outcome_line":"I3"},"diagnostics":[],"available":true,"note":"Mitigated path read from the Phase VI artifact; the waterfall is recomputed from the matrix with the same policy."}