About Foresight Engine

Foresight Engine is the working application of the VIG Claims-Tech Foresight Methodology, a reproducible research method for forecasting an insured market's losses over ten years for one driver, one claim cause and one geography, net of the technology that mitigates them. It is built for Vienna Insurance Group and designed so other insurers, and other industries, can use the same method.

What it produces

For every scope it produces a venture catalog (who is working on the loss, verified and clustered into mitigation categories), a ten-year loss forecast with its uncertainty bands and sensitivity analysis, and the evidence graph that connects both to their sources. The first pilots cover flood damage to property in Europe and wildfire damage to property in Southern Europe.

The rules it follows

• Every number cites a source. Each parameter rests on at least one top-tier source (T1 or T2); weaker sources only support.
• Every source is archived twice. The engine keeps the exact bytes it read, addressed by their SHA-256 hash, plus an Internet Archive copy.
• Two people sign off every stage. Both research leads approve before a run moves on; either can send it back with notes.
• Frozen pilots stay frozen. A pilot is pinned to the version of the method it started under and never edited in place; a re-run is a new pilot.
• Sources are read lawfully. The engine respects robots.txt and text-and-data-mining opt-outs and never bypasses a login.

This deployment

This site is a public working deployment. The engine's Python kernel runs inside your browser, and shared state is kept on Cloudflare. Anyone with the link can read every run, and anyone can currently create runs and record sign-offs, so treat what you see as a working record rather than a published report. See privacy for what is stored and contact to reach the team.